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Stumpage prices in Sweden 1909–2012: Testing for non-stationarity

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  • Hultkrantz, Lars
  • Andersson, Linda
  • Mantalos, Panagiotis

Abstract

The price of timber stumpage is one of the few natural-resource rents that can be directly observed as a market price. Rules for optimal timber harvesting under uncertainty have been found to depend on whether the timber rent price is non-stationary or stationary. In this study we extend previous research by Hultkrantz (1995) that tested for unit-root with an exogenous break point in Swedish stumpage prices from 1909 to 1990, employing data up to 2012, hence for 104 years, and unit-root tests with endogenously selected break points. We find support for a structural level break at the end of WW2 and that non-stationarity can be rejected. We show that this is a robust conclusion. There is thus no sign of a new break in the extended recent time period and no signal of a secular increase of timber resource scarcity.

Suggested Citation

  • Hultkrantz, Lars & Andersson, Linda & Mantalos, Panagiotis, 2014. "Stumpage prices in Sweden 1909–2012: Testing for non-stationarity," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 33-46.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:foreco:v:20:y:2014:i:1:p:33-46
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfe.2013.07.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Ben Abdallah, Skander & Lasserre, Pierre, 2016. "Asset retirement with infinitely repeated alternative replacements: Harvest age and species choice in forestry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 144-164.
    2. Ben Abdallah, Skander & Lasserre, Pierre, 2017. "Forest land value and rotation with an alternative land use," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(PB), pages 118-127.
    3. Hultkrantz, Lars & Mantalos, Panagiotis, 2016. "Estimating “Gamma” for Tail-hedge Discount Rates When Project Returns Are Co-integrated with GDP," Working Papers 2016:3, Örebro University, School of Business.
    4. Hultkrantz, Lars & Mantalos, Panagiotis, 2018. "Hedging with trees: Tail-hedge discounting of long-term forestry returns," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 52-57.

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    Keywords

    Roundwood; Timber; Natural-resource rents; Unit root;

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