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Stumpage prices in Sweden 1909–2012: Testing for non-stationarity

  • Hultkrantz, Lars
  • Andersson, Linda
  • Mantalos, Panagiotis

The price of timber stumpage is one of the few natural-resource rents that can be directly observed as a market price. Rules for optimal timber harvesting under uncertainty have been found to depend on whether the timber rent price is non-stationary or stationary. In this study we extend previous research by Hultkrantz (1995) that tested for unit-root with an exogenous break point in Swedish stumpage prices from 1909 to 1990, employing data up to 2012, hence for 104 years, and unit-root tests with endogenously selected break points. We find support for a structural level break at the end of WW2 and that non-stationarity can be rejected. We show that this is a robust conclusion. There is thus no sign of a new break in the extended recent time period and no signal of a secular increase of timber resource scarcity.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Forest Economics.

Volume (Year): 20 (2014)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 33-46

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Handle: RePEc:eee:foreco:v:20:y:2014:i:1:p:33-46
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