On Jumps and ARCH Effects in Natural Resource Prices. An Application to Stumpage Prices from Pacific Northwest National Forests
Models use for natural resources prices usually preclude the possibility of large changes (jumps) resulting from discrete, unexpected events. To test for the presence of jumps and ARCH effects, we propose to use bounds and bootstrap test techniques, thus solving the unidentified nuisance parameter problem. We apply this approach to stumpage price time series from the Pacific Northwest and find evidence of jumps and ARCH effects. Using real options, we then develop a stopping model to assess the impact of neglecting jumps on the decision to harvest old-grothw timber. Our numerical results show the importance of modeling jumps explicitly.
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|Date of creation:||2000|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: UNIVERSITE LAVAL, GREEN, DEPARTEMENT D'ECONOMIQUE, QUEBEC G1K 7P4.|
Phone: (418) 656-2096
Fax: (418) 656-7412
Web page: http://www.green.ecn.ulaval.ca/
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- Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
- Ball, Clifford A. & Torous, Walter N., 1983. "A Simplified Jump Process for Common Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 53-65, March.
- Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107.
- Ball, Clifford A & Torous, Walter N, 1985. " On Jumps in Common Stock Prices and Their Impact on Call Option Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 155-173, March.
- Brorsen, B Wade & Yang, Seung-Ryong, 1994. "Nonlinear Dynamics and the Distribution of Daily Stock Index Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 187-203, Summer.
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