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Stumpage Prices in Sweden 1909-2011: Testing for Non-Stationarity

Author

Listed:
  • Andersson, Linda

    () (Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics)

  • Hultkrantz , Lars

    () (Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics)

  • Mantalos , Panagiotis

    () (Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics)

Abstract

The price of timber stumpage is one of the few natural-resource rents that can be directly observed as a market price. Rules for optimal timber harvesting under uncertainty have been found to depend on whether the timber rent price is non-stationary or stationary. In this study we extend previous research by Hultkrantz (1995) that tested for unit-root with an exogenous break point in Swedish stumpage prices from 1909-1990, employing data up to 2011, hence for 103 years, and unit-root tests with an endogenously selected break point. We find support for a structural level break at the end of WW2 and that non-stationarity can be rejected. We show that this is a robust conclusion.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersson, Linda & Hultkrantz , Lars & Mantalos , Panagiotis, 2013. "Stumpage Prices in Sweden 1909-2011: Testing for Non-Stationarity," Working Papers 2013:1, Örebro University, School of Business.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2013_001
    as

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    File URL: https://www.oru.se/globalassets/oru-sv/institutioner/hh/workingpapers/workingpapers2013/wp-1-2013.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean: Corrections and Extensions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 467-470, October.
    5. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    6. Davis, Graham A. & Cairns, Robert D., 2012. "Good timing: The economics of optimal stopping," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 255-265.
    7. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ben Abdallah, Skander & Lasserre, Pierre, 2016. "Asset retirement with infinitely repeated alternative replacements: Harvest age and species choice in forestry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 144-164.
    2. repec:eee:foreco:v:29:y:2017:i:pb:p:118-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ben Abdallah, Skander & Lasserre, Pierre, 2017. "Forest land value and rotation with an alternative land use," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(PB), pages 118-127.
    4. Hultkrantz, Lars & Mantalos, Panagiotis, 2016. "Estimating “Gamma” for Tail-hedge Discount Rates When Project Returns Are Co-integrated with GDP," Working Papers 2016:3, Örebro University, School of Business.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Roundwood; timber; natural-resource rents; unit root;

    JEL classification:

    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry

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