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Reading the Smile: The Message Conveyed by Methods Which Infer Risk Neutral

Author

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  • Jondeau, E.
  • Rockinger, M.

Abstract

In this study we compare the quality and information content of risk neutral densities obtained by various methods. We consider a non-parametric method based on a mixture of log-normal densities, the semi-parametric ones based on an Hermite approximation of Madan and Milne, or based on an Edgeworth expansion of Jarrow and Rudd, the parametric approach of Malz which assumes a jump-diffusion for the underlying process, and eventually Heston's approach assuming a stochastic volatility model. We apply those models on FRF/DEM exchange rate options for two dates, for various maturities. Models differ when important news hit the market (here the 1997 snap elections). The non-parametric model provides a good fit to options prices but is unable under critical circumstances to provide as much information about market participants expectations than Malz's jump-diffusion model.

Suggested Citation

  • Jondeau, E. & Rockinger, M., 1998. "Reading the Smile: The Message Conveyed by Methods Which Infer Risk Neutral," Working papers 47, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:47
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    Cited by:

    1. Grith, Maria & Krätschmer, Volker, 2010. "Parametric estimation of risk neutral density functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-045, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    2. Rihab Bedoui & Haykel Hamdi, 2010. "Implied Risk-Neutral probability Density functions from options prices : A comparison of estimation methods," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-16, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2010-045 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jondeau, E. & Rockinger, M., 1999. "Estimating Gram-Charlier Expansions with Positivity Constraints," Working papers 56, Banque de France.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk neutral density ; Option pricing ; Exchange rate option.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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