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Structural Change and the Order of Integration in Univariate Time Series

  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana


    (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales)

In this article I investigate whether the presence of structural breaks affects inference on the order of integration in univariate time series. For this purpose, we make use of a version of the tests of Robinson (1994) which allows us to test unit and fractional roots in the presence of deterministic changes. Several Monte Carlo experiments conducted across the paper show that the tests perform relatively well in the presence of both mean and slope breaks. The tests are applied to annual data on German real GDP, the results showing that the series may be well described in terms of a fractional model with a structural slope break due to World War II.

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Paper provided by School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra in its series Faculty Working Papers with number 20/05.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published, Computational Economics, 2005, vol. 23(3): pp. 239-254.
Handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp2005
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  1. Lobato, Ignacio N & Savin, N E, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 261-68, July.
  2. Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1993. "Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange RAte Dynamics," Papers 9103, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  3. Anindya Banerjee & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1990. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend Break Hypothesis: Theory and International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1988. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 1999. "Testing fractional integration with monthly data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 613-629, December.
  7. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
  8. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2001. "A fractionally integrated model with a mean shift for the US and the UK real oil prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 643-658, December.
  9. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-87, August.
  10. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1988. "Searching For a Break in GNP," NBER Working Papers 2695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Granger, Clive W.J. & Hyung, Namwon, 1999. "Occasional Structural Breaks and Long Memory," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4d60t4jh, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  12. Alok Bhargava, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 369-384.
  13. Hidalgo, Javier & Robinson, Peter M., 1996. "Testing for structural change in a long-memory environment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 159-174, January.
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