Research on Rural Households’ Poverty Vulnerability in Poor Mountainous Areas: An Empirical Analysis in the Upper Reaches of the Min River, China

Quantitatively measuring the poverty vulnerability level of rural households in mountainous areas and the factors influencing the poverty vulnerability level is significant for China to consolidate the existing poverty alleviation achievements and prevent farmers in mountainous areas from falling back into poverty in the future. This study selects the upper reaches of the Min River, a typical poor mountainous area, as the research area and decomposes poverty vulnerability into two dimensions: consumption level and consumption fluctuation. Based on microsurvey data, this paper uses an econometric model to measure the poverty vulnerability of farmers who lived in the upper reaches of the Min River in 2023 and analyses its influencing factors. The results show that Edu, Laborer, and Land significantly impact rural households’ per capita consumption level in the future. Agri-shock, in terms of homogeneous risk, and Hea-shock and Hou-shock, in terms of heterogeneous risk, significantly impact rural households’ future consumption variance. Deposit weakens the poverty vulnerability caused by homogeneous risk (Agri-shock). Physicap and M can reduce the poverty vulnerability caused by homogeneous risks and heterogeneous risks. The research results have important practical significance for the establishment of risk and vulnerability early warning mechanisms in the new poverty alleviation strategy in the upper reaches of the Min River and other contiguous poverty areas and have important strategic guiding significance for the sustainable development of rural areas.