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Global market shocks and poverty in Vietnam: the case of rice

  • Ian Coxhead

    ()

    (Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison)

  • Vu Hoang Linh

    (University of Economics and Business - Vietnam National University)

  • Le Dong Tam

    (Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison)

World food prices have experienced dramatic increases in recent years. These "shocks" affect food importers and exporters alike. Vietnam is a major exporter of rice, and rice is also a key item in domestic production, employment and consumption. Accordingly, rice price shocks from the world market have general equilibrium impacts and as such, their implications for household welfare are not known ex ante. In this paper we present a framework for understanding the direct and indirect welfare effects of a global market shock of this kind. We quantify transmission of the shock from global indicator prices to domestic markets. Then we use an applied general equilibrium model to simulate the economic effects of the price changes. A recursive mapping to a nationally representative household living standards survey permits us to identify in detail the ceteris paribus effects of the shock on household incomes and welfare. In this analysis, interregional and intersectoral labor market adjustments emerge as key channels transmitting the effects of global price shocks across sectors and among households.

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Paper provided by Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam in its series Working Papers with number 32.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dpc:wpaper:3212
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  1. Peter Warr, 2008. "World food prices and poverty incidence in a food exporting country: a multihousehold general equilibrium analysis for Thailand," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 525-537, November.
  2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  3. Aksoy , M. Ataman & Isik-Dikmelik, Aylin, 2008. "Are low food prices pro-poor ? net food buyers and sellers in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4642, The World Bank.
  4. Chris Manning, 2009. "Globalisation and Labour Markets in Boom and Crisis: The Case of Vietnam," Departmental Working Papers 2009-17, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  5. Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries-super-1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 405-416, November.
  6. Jensen, Henning Tarp & Tarp, Finn, 2007. "A Vietnam Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the Year 2003," MPRA Paper 29822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Phan, Diep & Coxhead, Ian, 2010. "Inter-provincial migration and inequality during Vietnam's transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 100-112, January.
  8. Zahoor ul Haq & Hina Nazli & Karl Meilke, 2008. "Implications of high food prices for poverty in Pakistan," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 477-484, November.
  9. Minot, Nicholas & Goletti, Francesco, 2000. "Rice market liberalization and poverty in Viet Nam:," Research reports 114, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  10. Vu, Linh & Glewwe, Paul, 2011. "Impacts of Rising Food Prices on Poverty and Welfare in Vietnam," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(1), April.
  11. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
  12. Robert T. Jensen & Nolan H. Miller, 2008. "The impact of food price increases on caloric intake in China," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 465-476, November.
  13. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
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