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External Shocks and Poverty: How recession in Europe, Japan, and China affects Indonesian poor

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  • Arief Anshory Yusuf

    (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University)

Abstract

This paper attempts to understand the effect of a recession in Indonesia’s three main trading partners -- Europe, Japan, and China or EJC countries for short—on poverty in Indonesia. Specifically, the paper uses a GTAP model and an INDONESIA-E3 model to examine the impact of a 2 percent decline in GDP (relative to baseline) in the EJC countries on poverty in Indonesia. Results suggest that the impact of such a recession on Indonesia’s GDP through trade-linkages is negative but small. The main reason for this finding has to do with the low dependence of Indonesia on international trade. Results also suggest that the effect of such a recession in the EJC countries on poverty in Indonesia would be negative but small. In Indonesia most of the negative effects of such a recession would be felt by higher income households because they receive a large part of their incomes from the capital and skill-intensive sectors of the economy. Since they are less skilled, the poor are likely to be the first to lose their jobs in the event of an EJC recession. For this reason, the paper urges the Government of Indonesia to consider employment programs to ensure the continued employment of unskilled laborers.

Suggested Citation

  • Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2012. "External Shocks and Poverty: How recession in Europe, Japan, and China affects Indonesian poor," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201201, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Aug 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:unp:wpaper:201201
    as

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    File URL: http://ceds.feb.unpad.ac.id/wopeds/201201.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2008. "INDONESIA-E3: An Indonesian Applied General Equilibrium Model for Analyzing the Economy, Equity, and the Environment," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200804, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2008.
    2. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global crisis; poverty; Indonesia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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