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Argentina, Brasil e Uruguai: um estudo dos impactos regionais da ALCA
[Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay: a study of the regional impacts of ALCA]

Author

Listed:
  • Curzel, Rosana
  • Silber, Simão Davi
  • Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the effects on the Brazilian, Argentinean and Uruguayan economies of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). We use the GTAP (6.2) computable general equilibrium model and database to assess the effect of FTAA. The global CGE model allows us to analyze direct and indirect economic impacts on member countries as well as on other countries in the region. We want to know if FTAA would be beneficial to increase trade between member countries and if there are benefits on economic welfare. We consider a total of six liberalization scenarios. The first one is the FTAA. We assume that full market access is allowed for all goods across the American countries. That is, all tariffs barriers are eliminated for agriculture and manufacturing sectors. A second scenario assumes that Brazil does not sign the FTAA, but Argentina and Uruguay do so. A third scenario takes the first liberalization scenario and excludes. Finally, from the fourth to the sixth scenarios we repeat the first three scenarios, but we exclude sensible products. Before beginning each exercise, we updated the GTAP’s tariff database with the available information. This was done to the tariffs applied by US and Brazil to American countries. The analysis decomposes the effects of market access on the Brazilian and Argentinean economies in terms of international trade increase and measures the net effect of trade creation and trade diversion. We also analyze the welfare effects in all simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Curzel, Rosana & Silber, Simão Davi & Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins, 2007. "Argentina, Brasil e Uruguai: um estudo dos impactos regionais da ALCA [Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay: a study of the regional impacts of ALCA]," MPRA Paper 54502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:54502
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Honório Kume & Guida Piani, 2004. "ALCA: Uma Estimativa do Impacto no Comércio Bilateral Brasil-Estados Unidos," Discussion Papers 1058, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    2. Brockmeier, Martina, 2001. "A Graphical Exposition Of The Gtap Model," Technical Papers 28706, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Silvia Laens & Inés Terra, 2003. "Integration of the Americas: Welfare Effects and Options for the MERCOSUR," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0903, Department of Economics - dECON.
    4. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    5. Adams, Philip D., 2005. "Interpretation of results from CGE models such as GTAP," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 941-959, November.
    6. Brockmeier, Martina, 2001. "A Graphical Exposition of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 311, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    7. Silvia Laens & María Inés Terra, 2006. "La agenda externa del MERCOSUR: el impacto de negociaciones con el ALCA, la UE y la OMC," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0306, Department of Economics - dECON.
    8. Durán Lima, José Elías & De Miguel, Carlos J. & Schuschny, Andrés Ricardo, 2007. "Acuerdos de libre comercio entre los países andinos y los Estados Unidos: ¿cuánto se puede esperar de ellos?," Comercio Internacional 4426, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    MERCOSUL; FFTA; trade liberalization and general equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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