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Global Market Shocks and Poverty in Vietnam: The Case of Rice

  • Coxhead, Ian

    (University of WI)

  • Linh, Vu Hoang

    (National University of Hanoi)

  • Le, Dong Tam

    (University of WI)

World food prices have experienced dramatic increases in recent years. These "shocks" affect food importers and exporters alike. Vietnam is a major exporter of rice, and rice is also a key item in domestic production, employment and consumption. Accordingly, rice price shocks from the world market have general equilibrium impacts and as such, their implications for household welfare are not known ex ante. In this paper we first present a simple framework for understanding the direct and indirect welfare effects of a global market shock of this kind. Second, we quantify the transmission of the price shock from global indicator prices to domestic markets. Third, we then we use an applied general equilibrium (AGE) model to simulate the effects of domestic price changes in more detail. Fourth, a recursive mapping to a large nationally representative living standards survey permits us to identify in detail the ceteris paribus effects of the shock on household incomes and welfare. In this analysis, interregional and intersectoral adjustments in the labor market emerge as key channels transmitting the effects of global price shocks across sectors and among households.

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Paper provided by University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics in its series Staff Paper Series with number 559.

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Date of creation: Jul 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:wisagr:559
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  1. Aksoy , M. Ataman & Isik-Dikmelik, Aylin, 2008. "Are low food prices pro-poor ? net food buyers and sellers in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4642, The World Bank.
  2. Jensen, Henning Tarp & Tarp, Finn, 2007. "A Vietnam Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the Year 2003," MPRA Paper 29822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Phan, Diep & Coxhead, Ian, 2010. "Inter-provincial migration and inequality during Vietnam's transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 100-112, January.
  4. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
  5. Chris Manning, 2009. "Globalisation and Labour Markets in Boom and Crisis: The Case of Vietnam," Departmental Working Papers 2009-17, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  6. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  7. Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries-super-1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 405-416, November.
  8. Peter Warr, 2008. "World food prices and poverty incidence in a food exporting country: a multihousehold general equilibrium analysis for Thailand," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 525-537, November.
  9. Zahoor ul Haq & Hina Nazli & Karl Meilke, 2008. "Implications of high food prices for poverty in Pakistan," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 477-484, November.
  10. Linh Vu Hoang & Paul Glewwe, 2009. "Impacts of Rising Food Prices on Poverty and Welfare in Vietnam," Working Papers 13, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
  11. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
  12. Minot, Nicholas & Goletti, Francesco, 2000. "Rice market liberalization and poverty in Viet Nam:," Research reports 114, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  13. Robert T. Jensen & Nolan H. Miller, 2008. "The impact of food price increases on caloric intake in China," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 465-476, November.
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