Policy bias and agriculture: partial and general equilibrium measures
The paper examines the impact of industrial protection, agricultural export taxes, and overvaluation of the exchange rate on the balance between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. A variety of agricultural terms-of-trade indices are constructed to measure the policy bias against agriculture in a general equilibrium framework that incorporates traded and non-traded goods. These general equilibrium measures are compared to earlier work in a partial equilibrium framework assuming perfect substitutability between domestic and traded goods. Starting from a stylized computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Tanzania, we simulate a 25 percent tariff on non-agriculture and a 25 percent export tax on agriculture. We also consider the impact of changes in the equilibrium exchange rate. The results indicate that the partial equilibrium measures miss much of the action operating through indirect product and factor market linkages, while overstating the strength of the linkages between changes in the exchange rate and prices of traded goods on the agricultural terms of trade.
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- de Melo, Jaime & Robinson, Sherman, 1981. "Trade Policy and Resource Allocation in the Presence of Product Differentiation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(2), pages 169-77, May.
- Krueger, Anne O & Schiff, Maurice & Valdes, Alberto, 1988. "Agricultural Incentives in Developing Countries: Measuring the Effect of Sectoral and Economywide Policies," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 2(3), pages 255-71, September.
- Ceglowski, Janet, 1994. "The Law of One Price Revisited: New Evidence on the Behavior of International Prices," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(3), pages 407-18, July.
- Bautista, Romeo M., 1987. "Production incentives in Philippine agriculture: effects of trade and exchange rate policies," Research reports 59, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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