IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iecepo/v20y2023i3d10.1007_s10368-023-00564-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fed with import and starved by war: Estimating the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on cereals trade and global hunger

Author

Listed:
  • Marta Marson

    (Politecnico di Milano
    Collegio Carlo Alberto)

  • Donatella Saccone

    (Collegio Carlo Alberto
    University of Pollenzo)

Abstract

The fight against hunger has been confirmed as a global goal by the UN Agenda 2030 but the war between Russia and Ukraine is expected to create millions of new undernourished due, among others, to its impact on international trade in cereals, especially in wheat and maize. The present note represents a first effort to quantify such impact and its consequences on hunger in developing countries. This is done by (1) identifying the changes in trade flows of wheat and maize caused by the war; (2) computing the resulting variation in each developing country’s cereals import openness; and (3) applying the most recent estimates of the relation between cereals import openness and the prevalence of undernourishment provided by the recent literature to obtain the corresponding change in the number of undernourished because of the war. Results show a huge impact on the number of new undernourished, which, however, becomes less dramatic when the analysis is limited to countries where maize or wheat are staples. Along with the Black Sea blockade, the main impact on hunger comes from the bans issued by Ukraine and other economies reacting to the crisis and it particularly hurts people in countries depending on few trading partners.

Suggested Citation

  • Marta Marson & Donatella Saccone, 2023. "Fed with import and starved by war: Estimating the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on cereals trade and global hunger," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 413-423, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:20:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s10368-023-00564-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-023-00564-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10368-023-00564-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10368-023-00564-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brian D. Wright, 2012. "International Grain Reserves And Other Instruments to Address Volatility in Grain Markets," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 222-260, August.
    2. Jonathan Brooks & Alan Matthews, 2015. "Trade Dimensions of Food Security," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 77, OECD Publishing.
    3. Soriano, Bárbara & Garrido, Alberto, 2016. "How important is economic growth for reducing undernourishment in developing countries?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 87-101.
    4. Donatella Saccone, 2021. "Can the Covid19 pandemic affect the achievement of the ‘Zero Hunger’ goal? Some preliminary reflections," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(7), pages 1025-1038, September.
    5. Headey, Derek, 2011. "Rethinking the global food crisis: The role of trade shocks," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 136-146, April.
    6. Sébastien Mary, 2019. "Hungry for free trade? Food trade and extreme hunger in developing countries," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(2), pages 461-477, April.
    7. Dithmer, Jan & Abdulai, Awudu, 2017. "Does trade openness contribute to food security? A dynamic panel analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 218-230.
    8. Candelise, Chiara & Saccone, Donatella & Vallino, Elena, 2021. "An empirical assessment of the effects of electricity access on food security," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    9. Traverso, Silvio & Schiavo, Stefano, 2020. "Fair trade or trade fair? International food trade and cross-border macronutrient flows," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Donatella Saccone & Elena Vallino, 2025. "Global food security in a turbulent world: reviewing the impacts of the pandemic, the war and climate change," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 13(1), pages 1-36, December.
    2. Ekleme, Görkem & Yercan, Funda, 2025. "Assessment of the Black Sea Grain Initiative: Crisis Management via Maritime Transportation," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 199-218.
    3. Marson, Marta & Saccone, Donatella, 2025. "The effect of food price upsurges on income inequality: The richest win and the poorest lose," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marta Marson & Donatella Saccone & Elena Vallino, 2023. "Total trade, cereals trade and undernourishment: new empirical evidence for developing countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(2), pages 299-332, May.
    2. Isaac Ketu & Stéphane Mbiankeu Nguea, 2024. "Globalization and the “zero hunger” goal in Africa: Starving in an open world?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 2769-2789, October.
    3. Donatella Saccone, 2021. "Can the Covid19 pandemic affect the achievement of the ‘Zero Hunger’ goal? Some preliminary reflections," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(7), pages 1025-1038, September.
    4. Mary, Sebastien & Shaw, Kelsey & Colen, Liesbeth & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2020. "Does agricultural aid reduce child stunting?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    5. Candelise, Chiara & Saccone, Donatella & Vallino, Elena, 2021. "An empirical assessment of the effects of electricity access on food security," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Yacine Ouahioune, 2023. "Optimal Sub-Saharan and European trade policy response to the use of the food weapon by Russia: do regional taste variations count?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2023-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    7. Samuel Chukwudi Agunyai & Victor Ojakorotu, 2024. "Data-Driven Innovations and Sustainability of Food Security: Can Asymmetric Information Be Blamed for Food Insecurity in Africa?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-25, October.
    8. Traverso, Silvio & Schiavo, Stefano, 2020. "Fair trade or trade fair? International food trade and cross-border macronutrient flows," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    9. Mariusz Hamulczuk & Karolina Pawlak & Joanna Stefańczyk & Jarosław Gołębiewski, 2023. "Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia–Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food Security," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, November.
    10. Ridwan Lanre Ibrahim & Usama Al-Mulali & Kazeem Bello Ajide & Abubakar Mohammed & Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan, 2023. "The Implications of Food Security on Sustainability: Do Trade Facilitation, Population Growth, and Institutional Quality Make or Mar the Target for SSA?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, January.
    11. repec:zbw:iamodp:285032 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Sébastien Mary & Avraham Stoler, 2021. "Does agricultural trade liberalization increase obesity in developing countries?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 1326-1350, August.
    13. Karolina Pawlak & Walenty Poczta, 2024. "Twenty Years of Poland’s EU Membership: What Is Progress in the Agri-Food Sector?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-24, December.
    14. Grant, Jason H. & Boys, Kathryn A. & Giddens, Janice C. & Loux, William, 2025. "Enhancing nutrition availability through international trade: U.S. and global dairy exports to emerging markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    15. Jayjit Roy & Manan Roy & Jessica Robinson, 2024. "Agricultural Trade and Food Security," Working Papers 24-18, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    16. Danny Cassimon & Olusegun Fadare & George Mavrotas, 2022. "The combined effect of institutional quality and capital flows on food and nutrition security and undernourishment in Sub-Saharan Africa," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(10), pages 1-19, October.
    17. Marta Marson & Donatella Saccone & Elena Vallino, 2024. "Does food import contribute to rising obesity in low‐ and middle‐income countries?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(2), pages 371-410, May.
    18. Vilalta-Perdomo, Eliseo & Michel-Villarreal, Rosario & Thierry-Aguilera, Ricardo & Krejci, Caroline & Rainer, Javier & Burgos, Daniel, 2023. "The impact of logistics performance on the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goal 2: Zero hunger," SocArXiv 3ykgx, Center for Open Science.
    19. Hiroyuki Takeshima, 2024. "Public Expenditure’s Role in Reducing Poverty and Improving Food and Nutrition Security: Cross-Country Evidence from SPEED Data," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 36(5), pages 1045-1073, October.
    20. Matthias Kalkuhl & Mekbib Haile & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka, 2015. "Cost-benefit framework for policy action to navigate food price spikes. FOODSECURE Working Paper No 33," FOODSECURE Working papers 33, LEI Wageningen UR.
    21. Aményon Akakpo & Shi Xinjie & Bingyu Huangfu, 2025. "Influence of the rural electrification program on food security in Togo," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 17(2), pages 363-386, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:20:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s10368-023-00564-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.