Agricultural Trade and Food Security

In recent years, food insecurity has reached alarming proportions. Moreover, there has also been a growing recognition that international trade may affect the severity of the challenge. Accordingly, the effect of countries’ agricultural trade on food security is worth analyzing. However, identifying this impact is challenging due to the endogeneity of agricultural openness. Employing data across roughly 200 countries over 2000-2016 and an instrumental variables strategy, we estimate this causal effect of interest and arrive at a number of novel conclusions. First, the effect of agricultural commerce on food security differs from those of overall and non-agricultural trade. Second, the estimated impacts are often sensitive to the measure of food security employed. Finally, concerns over the endogeneity of openness are relevant. Key Words: Food Security, Agricultural Trade, Instrumental Variables