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Trade in Technology: A Potential Solution to the Food Security Challenges of the 21st Century

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  • Thomas W. Hertel
  • Uris L.C. Baldos
  • Keith O. Fuglie

Abstract

The recent rise in caloric undernutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) demonstrates the continued relevance of the Malthusian footrace between food availability and population. Sluggish growth in farm productivity in SSA has brought to the fore the key role of agricultural technology in alleviating future food insecurity. We develop a model of technology, food security and international trade with three distinct channels for technology reduce food insecurity in SSA. The first is via greater domestic R&D investment. An alternative is to import technologies from other countries with significant knowledge capital. The third role for technology to resolve the Malthusian dilemma in SSA is that of ‘virtual technology trade’, i.e., importing technological investments undertaken elsewhere through cheaper imported food. To assess the relative contribution of each channel to food security in Africa, we employ a partial equilibrium, quantitative trade model, augmented by a temporal relationship between R&D investments, knowledge capital and agricultural productivity. Over the historical period: 1991-2011 we find that direct R&D investments in SSA have been the dominant vehicle for lowering food prices in Africa. Looking forward to 2050, we find that virtual technology trade will be the most important vehicle for reducing non-farm undernutrition in Africa.

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  • Thomas W. Hertel & Uris L.C. Baldos & Keith O. Fuglie, 2020. "Trade in Technology: A Potential Solution to the Food Security Challenges of the 21st Century," NBER Working Papers 27148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27148
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    Cited by:

    1. Zereyesus, Yacob A. & Kee, Jennifer Y. & Morgan, Stephen N. & Hendricks, Nathan P. & Johnson, Michael E. & Cardell, Lila & Nava, Noé J. & Jelliffe, Jeremy L. & Ac-Pangan, Walter, 2023. "Does trade openness affect global grain supply response?," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335666, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Kym Anderson, 2022. "Agriculture in a more uncertain global trade environment," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(4), pages 563-579, July.
    3. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zeng, Mingli & Luo, Kang, 2023. "Food security and digital economy in China: A pathway towards sustainable development," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1106-1125.
    4. Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe & Baquedano, Felix & Morgan, Stephen, 2022. "Evaluating the Prediction Performance of the International Food Security Assessment's Production Models: A Cross-Validation Approach," USDA Miscellaneous 333530, United States Department of Agriculture.
    5. Paul Brenton & Vicky Chemutai & Mari Pangestu, 2022. "Trade and food security in a climate change‐impacted world," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(4), pages 580-591, July.
    6. Ray, Srabashi & Hertel, Thomas, 2022. "Assessing The Impact Of Conservation Policies On Rural Communities: The Role Of Labor Markets," Conference papers 333401, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Kayenat Kabir & Uris Lantz C. Baldos & Thomas W. Hertel, 2023. "The new Malthusian challenge in the Sahel: prospects for improving food security in Niger," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(2), pages 455-476, April.
    8. Ryota Nakatani, 2024. "Food companies' productivity dynamics: Exploring the role of intangible assets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 185-226, January.
    9. Huong Nguyen & Marcus Randall & Andrew Lewis, 2024. "Factors Affecting Crop Prices in the Context of Climate Change—A Review," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, January.
    10. Christopher B. Barrett, 2021. "Overcoming Global Food Security Challenges through Science and Solidarity," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(2), pages 422-447, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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