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Food prices and poverty reduction in the long run:

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  • Headey, Derek D.

Abstract

Standard microeconomic methods consistently suggest that, in the short run, higher food prices increase poverty in developing countries. In contrast, macroeconomic models that allow for an agricultural supply response and consequent wage adjustments suggest that the poor ultimately benefit from higher food prices. In this paper we use international data to systematically test the relationship between changes in domestic food prices and changes in poverty. We find robust evidence that in the long run (one to five years) higher food prices reduce poverty and inequality. The magnitudes of these effects vary across specifications and are not precisely estimated, but they are large enough to suggest that the recent increase in global food prices has significantly accelerated the rate of global poverty reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Headey, Derek D., 2014. "Food prices and poverty reduction in the long run:," IFPRI discussion papers 1331, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1331
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    1. Martin Ravallion & Shaohua Chen & Prem Sangraula, 2007. "New Evidence on the Urbanization of Global Poverty," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(4), pages 667-701.
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    3. Easterly, William & Fischer, Stanley, 2001. "Inflation and the Poor," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 160-178, May.
    4. Derek D. Headey, 2013. "The Impact of the Global Food Crisis on Self-Assessed Food Security," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 27(1), pages 1-27.
    5. Van Campenhout, Bjorn & Pauw, Karl & Minot, Nicholas, 2013. "The impact of food prices shocks in Uganda: First-order versus long-run effects:," IFPRI discussion papers 1284, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Alain de Janvry & Elisabeth Sadoulet, 2010. "Agricultural Growth and Poverty Reduction: Additional Evidence," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 25(1), pages 1-20, February.
    7. Rafael E. de Hoyos & Denis Medvedev, 2011. "Poverty Effects of Higher Food Prices: A Global Perspective," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 387-402, August.
    8. Zhang, Xiaobo & Rashid, Shahidur & Ahmad, Kaikaus & Mueller, Valerie & Lee, Hak Lim & Lemma, Solomon & Belal, Saika & Ahmed, Akhter U., 2013. "Rising wages in Bangladesh:," IFPRI discussion papers 1249, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    1. repec:fpr:ifpric:9780896292499-08 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gentilini,Ugo, 2016. "The revival of the"cash versus food"debate : new evidence for an old quandary ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7584, The World Bank.
    3. Olper, Alessandro & Curzi, Daniele & Swinnen, Jo, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Child Mortality: A Synthetic Control Method," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212597, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Jasmien De Winne & Gert Peersman, 2018. "Agricultural Price Shocks and Business Cycles - A Global Warning for Advanced Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 7037, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. Ly, Nguyen & Henry, Kinnucan, 2016. "Some Effects of Income and Population Growth on Fish Price and Welfare," 2016 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2016, San Antonio, Texas 229892, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    6. Sadullah Çelik & Deniz Şatıroğlu, 2015. "A Reality Check on the Relationship between Poverty and Income Inequality for Turkey," EY International Congress on Economics II (EYC2015), November 5-6, 2015, Ankara, Turkey 229, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
    7. World Bank Group, 2015. "Kyrgyz Republic," World Bank Other Operational Studies 22957, The World Bank.
    8. Gentilini, Ugo, 2014. "Our daily bread : what is the evidence on comparing cash versus food transfers?," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 89502, The World Bank.
    9. Traub, Lulama & Yeboah, Felix & Meyer, Ferdinand & Jayne, Thomas S., 2015. "Megatrends and the Future of African Economies," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212525, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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    Keywords

    Food prices; Poverty; income; poverty alleviation; Food crisis; inequality; income growth;

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