IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/saea16/229892.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Some Effects of Income and Population Growth on Fish Price and Welfare

Author

Listed:
  • Ly, Nguyen
  • Henry, Kinnucan

Abstract

A simple excess supply-demand model is used to determine the effects of income and population growth on the international price of fish, and on welfare in net exporting and importing regions of the world. Stochastic simulations of the model suggest fish price increases by between 0.25% and 1.07% for each 1% increase in world income, and by between 0.30% and 1.20% for each 1% increase in world population. Combining these elasticity estimates with the actual growth in income and population for 1999-2013, results suggests income and population growth together caused the world price of fish to rise by between 1.0% and 4.1% per year, for a best-bet estimate of 2.1% per year. The actual average annual rise in fish price over the last 12 years was 0.9%. This suggests supply growth due to aquaculture moderated to a significant extent price pressure due to demand growth. Higher fish prices increase welfare in net exporting countries at the expense of welfare in net importing countries. However, our results suggest net gains to producers and consumers in the two regions combined are positive.

Suggested Citation

  • Ly, Nguyen & Henry, Kinnucan, 2016. "Some Effects of Income and Population Growth on Fish Price and Welfare," 2016 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2016, San Antonio, Texas 229892, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:saea16:229892
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.229892
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/229892/files/Fish%20Price%20Paper.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.229892?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lanfranco, Bruno A. & Ames, Glenn C.W. & Huang, Chung L., 2002. "Comparisons Of Hispanic Households' Demand For Meats With Other Ethnic Groups," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 33(1), pages 1-10, March.
    2. Kjell G. Salvanes, 1997. "Market Delineation and Demand Structure," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 139-150.
    3. James Eales & Catherine Durham & Cathy R. Wessells, 1997. "Generalized Models of Japanese Demand for Fish," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(4), pages 1153-1163.
    4. Robert G. Chambers & Richard E. Just, 1979. "A Critique of Exchange Rate Treatment in Agricultural Trade Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(2), pages 249-257.
    5. Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low‐income countries1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 405-416, November.
    6. Hsiang-tai Cheng & Oral Capps, 1988. "Demand Analysis of Fresh and Frozen Finfish and Shellfish in the United States," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(3), pages 533-542.
    7. Richard C. Bishop & Matthew T. Holt, 2002. "A semiflexible normalized quadratic inverse demand system: an application to the price formation of fish," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 23-47.
    8. Kumar, Praduman & Dey, Madan Mohan & Paraguas, Ferdinand J., 2006. "Fish Supply Projections by Production Environments and Species Types in India," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 19(2), July.
    9. Kehar Singh & Madan M. Dey & Prasanna Surathkal, 2014. "Seasonal and Spatial Variations in Demand for and Elasticities of Fish Products in the United States: An Analysis Based on Market-Level Scanner Data," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 62(3), pages 343-363, September.
    10. Barten, A. P. & Bettendorf, L. J., 1989. "Price formation of fish : An application of an inverse demand system," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1509-1525, October.
    11. Dey, Madan Mohan & Garcia, Yolanda T. & Kumar, Praduman & Piumsombun, Somying & Haque, Muhammad Sirajul & Li, Luping & Radam, Alias & Senaratne, Athula & Khiem, Nguyen Tri & Koeshendrajana, Sonny, 2008. "Demand for fish in Asia: a cross-country analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(3), pages 1-18.
    12. Frank Asche, 2009. "Adjustment Cost and Supply Response in a Fishery: A Dynamic Revenue Function," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 85(1), pages 201-215.
    13. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
    14. Derek Headey & Shenggen Fan, 2008. "Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 375-391, November.
    15. Headey, Derek & Hoddinott, John & Ali, Disha & Tesfaye, Roman & Dereje, Mekdim, 2015. "The Other Asian Enigma: Explaining the Rapid Reduction of Undernutrition in Bangladesh," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 749-761.
    16. Headey, Derek D., 2014. "Food prices and poverty reduction in the long run:," IFPRI discussion papers 1331, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    17. Lusk, Jayson L. & Roosen, Jutta & Shogren, Jason (ed.), 2011. "The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Food Consumption and Policy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199569441.
    18. Rickertsen, Kyrre, 1996. "Structural Change and the Demand for Meat and Fish in Norway," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 23(3), pages 316-330.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jasmien De Winne & Gert Peersman, 2018. "Agricultural Price Shocks and Business Cycles - A Global Warning for Advanced Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 7037, CESifo.
    2. Chris Moore & Charles Griffiths, 2018. "Welfare analysis in a two-stage inverse demand model: an application to harvest changes in the Chesapeake Bay," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1181-1206, November.
    3. Moore, Chris, 2015. "Welfare Estimates of Avoided Ocean Acidification in the U.S. Mollusk Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-13.
    4. Hertel, By Thomas W. & Baldos, Uris L.C. & Fuglie, Keith O., 2020. "Trade in technology: A potential solution to the food security challenges of the 21st century," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Kumar, Neha & Quisumbing, Agnes R., 2011. "Gendered impacts of the 2007-08 food price crisis: Evidence using panel data from rural Ethiopia," IFPRI discussion papers 1093, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Kira Lancker & Julia Bronnmann, 2022. "Substitution Preferences for Fish in Senegal," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(4), pages 1015-1045, August.
    7. Jin Guo & Tetsuji Tanaka, 2020. "Examining the determinants of global and local price passthrough in cereal markets: evidence from DCC-GJR-GARCH and panel analyses," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, December.
    8. Hovhannisyan, Vardges & Shanoyan, Aleksan, 2018. "An Empirical Analysis Of Welfare Consequences Of Rising Food Prices In Urban China: The Easi Approach," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 273987, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Derek Headey & Shenggen Fan, 2008. "Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 375-391, November.
    10. Lancker, Kira & Bronmann, Julia, 2020. "Quantifying consumers’ love for marine biodiversity," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304214, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Negi, Digvijay S., 2022. "Global food price surge, in-kind transfers and household welfare: Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    12. Derek Headey & Marie Ruel, 2023. "Food inflation and child undernutrition in low and middle income countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    13. Pham Van Ha & Hoa Thi Minh Nguyen & Tom Kompas & Tuong Nhu Che & Bui Trinh, 2015. "Rice Production, Trade and the Poor: Regional Effects of Rice Export Policy on Households in Vietnam," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 280-307, June.
    14. Derek Headey & Sangeetha Malaiyandi & Shenggen Fan, 2010. "Navigating the perfect storm: reflections on the food, energy, and financial crises," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 217-228, November.
    15. Lee, Young-Jae & Kennedy, P. Lynn, 2009. "Measurement Of Substitutability Between U.S. Domestic Catfish And Imported Fish," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46782, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    16. Estrades, Carmen & Terra, María Inés, 2012. "Commodity prices, trade, and poverty in Uruguay," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 58-66.
    17. Verpoorten, Marijke & Arora, Abhimanyu & Stoop, Nik & Swinnen, Johan, 2013. "Self-reported food insecurity in Africa during the food price crisis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 51-63.
    18. Hadley, Craig & Stevenson, Edward Geoffrey Jedediah & Tadesse, Yemesrach & Belachew, Tefera, 2012. "Rapidly rising food prices and the experience of food insecurity in urban Ethiopia: Impacts on health and well-being," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 75(12), pages 2412-2419.
    19. Joseph Mawejje, 2016. "Food prices, energy and climate shocks in Uganda," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, December.
    20. Headey, Derek, 2011. "Was the global food crisis really a crisis?: Simulations versus self-reporting," IFPRI discussion papers 1087, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:saea16:229892. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/saeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.