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Disentangling Corn Price Volatility: The Role of Global Demand, Speculation, and Energy

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  • McPhail, Lihong Lu
  • Du, Xiaodong
  • Muhammad, Andrew

Abstract

Despite extensive literature on contributing factors to the high commodity prices and volatility in the recent years, few have examined these causal factors together in one analysis.We quantify empirically the relative importance of three factors: global demand, speculation, and energy prices/policy in explaining corn price volatility. A structural vector auto-regression model is developed and variance decomposition is applied to measure the contribution of each factor in explaining corn price variation. We find that speculation is important, but only in the short run. However, in the long run, energy is the most important followed by global demand.

Suggested Citation

  • McPhail, Lihong Lu & Du, Xiaodong & Muhammad, Andrew, 2012. "Disentangling Corn Price Volatility: The Role of Global Demand, Speculation, and Energy," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(03), August.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:130287
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xiaodong Du and Lihong Lu McPhail, 2012. "Inside the Black Box: the Price Linkage and Transmission between Energy and Agricultural Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    2. Teguh Dartanto & Usman, 2011. "Volatility of World Soybean Prices, Import Tariffs and Poverty in Indonesia," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 5(2), pages 139-181, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ederer, Stefan & Heumesser, Christine & Staritz, Cornelia, 2013. "The role of fundamentals and financialisation in recent commodity price developments: An empirical analysis for wheat, coffee, cotton, and oil," Working Papers 42, Österreichische Forschungsstiftung für Internationale Entwicklung (ÖFSE) / Austrian Foundation for Development Research.
    2. Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2015. "Financialization of Agricultural Commodity Markets: Do Financial Data Help to Forecast Agricultural Prices?," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205124, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    3. Jeremy G. Weber & Nigel Key & Erik O’Donoghue, 2016. "Does Federal Crop Insurance Make Environmental Externalities from Agriculture Worse?," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(3), pages 707-742.
    4. Wilson, Norbert L.W., 2012. "Discussion: Causes of Agricultural and Food Price Inflation and Volatility," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(03), August.
    5. Doshi, Amar & Pascoe, Sean & Coglan, Louisa & Rainey, Thomas J., 2016. "Economic and policy issues in the production of algae-based biofuels: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 329-337.
    6. Qiu, Cheng & Colson, Gregory & Escalante, Cesar & Wetzstein, Michael, 2012. "Considering macroeconomic indicators in the food before fuel nexus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2021-2028.
    7. Aled W. Jones & Alexander Phillips, 2016. "Historic Food Production Shocks: Quantifying the Extremes," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(5), pages 1-10, April.
    8. Hao, Na & Colson, Gregory & Karali, Berna & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2013. "Food before Biodiesel Fuel?," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 143078, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    9. Haase, Marco & Seiler Zimmermann, Yvonne & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2016. "The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets – A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
    10. Hao, Na & Colson, Gregory & Seong, Byeongchan & Park, Cheolwoo & Wetzstein, Michael, 2015. "Drought, ethanol, and livestock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 301-307.
    11. Sukati, Mphumuzi, 2013. "Measuring Maize Price Volatility in Swaziland using ARCH/GARCH approach," MPRA Paper 51840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:6:p:960-:d:100612 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bernhard Brümmer & Olaf Korn & Kristina Schlüßler & Tinoush Jamali Jaghdani, 2016. "Volatility in Oilseeds and Vegetable Oils Markets: Drivers and Spillovers," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 685-705, September.
    14. Qiu, Cheng & Colson, Gregory & Wetzstein, Michael, 2014. "An ethanol blend wall shift is prone to increase petroleum gasoline demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 160-165.
    15. Bohl, Martin T. & Stephan, Patrick M., 2013. "Does Futures Speculation Destabilize Spot Prices? New Evidence for Commodity Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 45(04), November.
    16. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2013. "Dissecting Corn Price Movements with Directed Acyclic Graphs," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151279, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    corn; global demand; energy; price volatility; speculation; structural vector autoregression; Marketing; Q11; C32; G2; Q4;

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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