IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/jagaec/v44y2012i03p401-410_00.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Disentangling Corn Price Volatility: The Role of Global Demand, Speculation, and Energy

Author

Listed:
  • McPhail, Lihong Lu
  • Du, Xiaodong
  • Muhammad, Andrew

Abstract

Despite extensive literature on contributing factors to the high commodity prices and volatility in the recent years, few have examined these causal factors together in one analysis. We quantify empirically the relative importance of three factors: global demand, speculation, and energy prices/policy in explaining corn price volatility. A structural vector auto-regression model is developed and variance decomposition is applied to measure the contribution of each factor in explaining corn price variation. We find that speculation is important, but only in the short run. However, in the long run, energy is the most important followed by global demand.

Suggested Citation

  • McPhail, Lihong Lu & Du, Xiaodong & Muhammad, Andrew, 2012. "Disentangling Corn Price Volatility: The Role of Global Demand, Speculation, and Energy," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 401-410, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:44:y:2012:i:03:p:401-410_00
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S107407080000050X/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xiaodong Du and Lihong Lu McPhail, 2012. "Inside the Black Box: the Price Linkage and Transmission between Energy and Agricultural Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    2. Teguh Dartanto & Usman, 2011. "Volatility of World Soybean Prices, Import Tariffs and Poverty in Indonesia," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 5(2), pages 139-181, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chia-Lin Chang & Yiying Li & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Volatility Spillovers between Energy and Agricultural Markets: A Critical Appraisal of Theory and Practice," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-19, June.
    2. Valentina G. Bruno & Bahattin Büyükşahin & Michel A. Robe, 2017. "The Financialization of Food?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264.
    3. Deborah Bentivoglio & Adele Finco & Mirian Rumenos Piedade Bacchi, 2016. "Interdependencies between Biofuel, Fuel and Food Prices: The Case of the Brazilian Ethanol Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-16, June.
    4. Asche, Frank & Oglend, Atle, 2016. "The relationship between input-factor and output prices in commodity industries: The case of Norwegian salmon aquaculture," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 35-47.
    5. Chen, Peng & He, Limin & Yang, Xuan, 2021. "On interdependence structure of China's commodity market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Euijune Kim & Geoffrey J.D. Hewings & Hidayat Amir, 2015. "Project Evaluation of Transportation Projects: an Application of Financial Computable General Equilibrium Model," ERSA conference papers ersa15p453, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Angelopoulos, Jason & Sahoo, Satya & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2020. "Commodity and transportation economic market interactions revisited: New evidence from a dynamic factor model," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Jeremy G. Weber & Nigel Key & Erik O’Donoghue, 2016. "Does Federal Crop Insurance Make Environmental Externalities from Agriculture Worse?," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(3), pages 707-742.
    9. López Cabrera, Brenda & Schulz, Franziska, 2016. "Volatility linkages between energy and agricultural commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 190-203.
    10. M. Thenmozhi & Shipra Maurya, 2020. "Crude Oil Volatility Transmission Across Food Commodity Markets: A Multivariate BEKK-GARCH Approach," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 20(2), pages 131-164, August.
    11. Arip Muttaqien & Denisa Sologon & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2018. "Tax-benefit microsimulation model in developing countries: A feasibility study for an extension of SOUTHMOD in Indonesia," WIDER Working Paper Series 168, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. da Silveira, Rodrigo Lanna F. & Mattos, Fabio L., 2015. "Price And Volatility Transmission In Livestock And Grain Markets: Examining The Effect Of Increasing Ethanol Production Across Countries," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205684, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Pavel Kotyza & Katarzyna Czech & Michał Wielechowski & Luboš Smutka & Petr Procházka, 2021. "Sugar Prices vs. Financial Market Uncertainty in the Time of Crisis: Does COVID-19 Induce Structural Changes in the Relationship?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-16, January.
    14. Jiang, Jingze & Marsh, Thomas L. & Tozer, Peter R., 2015. "Policy induced price volatility transmission: Linking the U.S. crude oil, corn and plastics markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 217-227.
    15. Anthony N. Rezitis & Panagiotis Andrikopoulos & Theodoros Daglis, 2024. "Assessing the asymmetric volatility linkages of energy and agricultural commodity futures during low and high volatility regimes," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 451-483, March.
    16. Christian Hertrich, 2013. "Asset Allocation Considerations for Pension Insurance Funds," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-658-02167-2, September.
    17. Zhengyi Dong, 2019. "Does the Development of Bioenergy Exacerbate the Price Increase of Maize?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-16, September.
    18. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Boachie, Micheal Kofi & Suleman, Muhammed Tahir & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Structure dependence between oil and agricultural commodities returns: The role of geopolitical risks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    19. Annastiina Silvennoinen & Susan Thorp, 2016. "Crude Oil and Agricultural Futures: An Analysis of Correlation Dynamics," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 522-544, June.
    20. Cheng, Natalie Fang Ling & Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Poon, Wai Ching & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "The US-China trade war and the volatility linkages between energy and agricultural commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:44:y:2012:i:03:p:401-410_00. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/aae .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.