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How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets

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Abstract

In this article we use the theories of market efficiency and supply of storage to develop a conceptual link between the corn and ethanol markets and explore statistical evidence for the link. We propose that a long-run no-profit condition is established in distant futures markets for ethanol, corn, and natural gas and then use the theory of storage to define an inter-temporal equilibrium among these prices. The relationship shows that under certain conditions, future price expectations will influence current spot prices and that a short-term relationship between input and output prices will exist. This short-term relationship will contain fixed costs. We demonstrate validity of the theory using a structural price model and then by means of time-series techniques.

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  • Mindy L. Mallory & Dermot J. Hayes & Scott H. Irwin, 2010. "How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications (archive only) 10-wp517, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    • Handle: RePEc:ias:fpaper:10-wp517
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    Keywords

    arbitrage; cointegration; corn; energy; ethanol; futures; price-analysis; storage.;
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