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Structural Breaks, Cointegration, and Causality by VECM Analysis of Crude Oil and Food Price

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  • Aynur Pala

    (Okan University, Faculty of Economics and Administirative Sciences, Tuzla Campus, Istanbul, Turkey)

Abstract

This papers investigated form of the linkage beetwen crude oil price index and food price index, using Johansen Cointegration test, and Granger Causality by VECM. Empirical results for monthly data from 1990:01 to 2011:08 indicated that evidence for breaks after 2008:08 and 2008:11. We find a clear long-run relationship between these series for the full and sub sample. Cointegration regression coefficient is negative at the 1990:01-2008:08 time period, but adversely positive at the 2008:11-2011:08 time period. This results represent that relation between crude oil and food price chanced.

Suggested Citation

  • Aynur Pala, 2013. "Structural Breaks, Cointegration, and Causality by VECM Analysis of Crude Oil and Food Price," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 238-246.
  • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2013-03-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Bloch, Harry, 2016. "Explaining commodity prices through asymmetric oil shocks: Evidence from nonlinear models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 34-48.
    2. Razmi, Fatemeh & Azali, M. & Chin, Lee & Shah Habibullah, Muzafar, 2016. "The role of monetary transmission channels in transmitting oil price shocks to prices in ASEAN-4 countries during pre- and post-global financial crisis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 581-591.
    3. Fatemeh Razmi & Azali Mohamed & Lee Chin & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2017. "How Does Monetary Policy Affect Economic Vulnerability to Oil Price Shock as against US Economy Shock?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 544-550.
    4. Potori, Norbert & Stark, András, 2015. "Do crude oil prices influence new crop sunflower seed futures price discovery in Hungary?," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, vol. 117(3), December.
    5. Razmi, Fatemeh & Mohamed, Azali & Chin, Lee & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2015. "The role of monetary policy in macroeconomic volatility of ASEAN-4 countries against oil price shock over time," MPRA Paper 65714, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Fatemeh Razmi & Azali Mohamed & Lee Chin & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2015. "The Role of Monetary Policy in Macroeconomic Volatility of Association of Southeast Asian Nations-4 Countries against Oil Price Shock over Time," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 731-737.
    7. Anthony N. Rezitis, 2015. "Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Commodity Prices, Crude Oil Prices and US Dollar Exchange Rates using Panel Data Econometric Methods," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 851-868.
    8. Razmi, Fatemeh & M., Azali & Chin, Lee & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2015. "The effects of oil price and US economy on Thailand's macroeconomy: The role of monetary transmission mechanism," MPRA Paper 69096, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude oil price; food price; structural break; VECM;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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