IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the relation between global food and crude oil prices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework


  • Cheng, Sheng
  • Cao, Yan


The research explores the dynamic relationship between global crude oil price and food price indices on a sample of monthly data spanning from January 1990 to June 2017 within a nonlinear framework. Linear methods are applied first to examine the stationarity, co-integration and linear Granger causality of the variables of crude oil and food price indices. Moreover, a series of nonlinear tests are used to detect the nonlinearity of the univariate and oil-food prices link. Finally, the asymmetric adjustment analyses are made to understand the dynamic vary mechanism depending on the considered regime of the threshold vector autoregressive model (TVAR), and the threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) is integrated to check how the variables respond to the deviations from the equilibrium. The findings of systematic tests and analyses confirm the fact that there is a nonlinear causal relationship between global crude oil and food price indices. The co-movement of crude oil and food price has obvious structural break features, which is relevant to the underlying regime. Furthermore, the results also show that the adjustment process of the food price indices towards equilibrium is highly persistent and grows faster than oil price when a threshold is reached.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2019. "On the relation between global food and crude oil prices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-432.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:81:y:2019:i:c:p:422-432
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.04.007

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item


    Global crude oil price indices; International food price indices; Nonlinearity; Asymmetric adjustment;

    JEL classification:

    • B27 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - International Trade and Finance
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:81:y:2019:i:c:p:422-432. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.