IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pab/rmcpee/v26y2018i1p71-83.html

Some searches may not work properly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

   My bibliography  Save this article

Volatility Linkages between Agricultural Commodity Prices, Oil Prices and Real USD Exchange Rate || Vínculos de volatilidad entre precios de productos agrícolas, precios del petróleo y tipo de cambio del dólar estadounidense

Author

Listed:
  • Guellil, Mohammed Seghir

    (Faculty of Economics, Business and Management Sciences, University of Mascara (Algeria) Author-Name: Belmokaddem, Mostefa
    Faculty of Economics, Business and Management Sciences, University of Tlemcen (Algeria))

  • Benbouziane, Mohamed

    (Faculty of Economics, Business and Management Sciences, University of Tlemcen (Algeria))

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic nexus betwixt oil prices, twenty-two world agricultural commodity prices and given the evolution of the relative strength of the US dollar in a panel setting. We use panel cointegration and Panel Granger causality methods for a panel of twenty-two agricultural products based on annual observations ranging from 1980 to 2015. The empirical results provide a strong evidence of long-term relationship between Agricultural Commodity Prices, Oil Prices and Real USD Exchange Rate. Contrary to the findings of many studies in the literature that report neutrality of agricultural prices to oil price changes, we find strong support of bi-directional causal linkages among Agricultural Commodity Prices, Oil Prices and Real USD Exchange Rate. The long-run causality analysis thereby implies that the oil prices and the dollar have a predictive power to forecast the agricultural prices, which could be a good tool to prioritize the allocation of resources across industries to ensure agricultural scenario in general and economic outcomes. || Este estudio examina la relación dinámica entre los precios del petróleo del mundo y veintidós precios de las materias primas agrícolas del mundo que explican cambios en la fuerza relativa del dólar estadounidense en un panel. Empleamos los métodos de cointegración de panel y de la causalidad de Granger para un panel de veintidós productos agrícolas basados en las observaciones anuales que se extienden de 1980 a 2015. Los resultados empíricos proporcionan una prueba evidente de la relación a largo plazo entre los precios de las materias primas agrícolas, los precios del petróleo y el tipo de cambio real del dólar estadounidense. Al contrario de los hallazgos en muchos estudios en la literatura que exponen la neutralidad de los precios agrícolas frente a los cambios en el precio del petróleo, nosotros encontramos un fuerte respaldo a la existencia de acoplamientos causales bidireccionales entre precios de las materias primas agrícolas, precios del petróleo y el tipo de cambio real del dólar estadounidense. El análisis a largo plazo de la causalidad, de este modo, implica que los precios del petróleo y del dólar tienen un poder profético para prever los precios agrícolas, que podrían ser una buena herramienta para priorizar la asignación de recursos a través de industrias para asegurar el escenario agrícola en general y los resultados económicos.

Suggested Citation

  • Guellil, Mohammed Seghir & Benbouziane, Mohamed, 2018. "Volatility Linkages between Agricultural Commodity Prices, Oil Prices and Real USD Exchange Rate || Vínculos de volatilidad entre precios de productos agrícolas, precios del petróleo y tipo de cambio ," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 26(1), pages 71-83, Diciembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:pab:rmcpee:v:26:y:2018:i:1:p:71-83
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.upo.es/revistas/index.php/RevMetCuant/article/view/2700
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.upo.es/revistas/index.php/RevMetCuant/article/view/2700/3036
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Saghaian, Sayed H., 2010. "The Impact of the Oil Sector on Commodity Prices: Correlation or Causation?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 477-485, August.
    2. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425, June.
    3. Wixson, Sarah E. & Katchova, Ani L., 2012. "Price Asymmetric Relationships in Commodity and Energy Markets," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122553, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    5. Baffes, John & Haniotis, Tassos, 2010. "Placing the 2006/08 commodity price boom into perspective," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5371, The World Bank.
    6. Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1145-1194.
    7. Baffes, John, 2007. "Oil spills on other commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 126-134, September.
    8. Ciaian, Pavel & Kancs, d'Artis, 2011. "Food, energy and environment: Is bioenergy the missing link?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 571-580, October.
    9. Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) & Bessler, David A. & Fuller, Stephen W., 2006. "Cointegration and Causality Analysis of World Vegetable Oil and Crude Oil Prices," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21439, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Derek Headey & Shenggen Fan, 2008. "Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 375-391, November.
    11. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    12. Rosa, Franco & Vasciaveo, Michela, 2012. "Volatility in US and Italian agricultural markets, interactions and policy evaluation," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122530, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    14. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Janda, Karel & Zilberman, David, 2012. "Correlations between biofuels and related commodities before and during the food crisis: A taxonomy perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1380-1391.
    15. Mutuc, Maria & Pan, Suwen & Hudson, Darren, 2011. "Response of Cotton to Oil Price Shocks," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 12(2).
    16. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Do food and oil prices co-move?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 456-467.
    17. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long‐run Money Demand," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 655-680, December.
    18. Chen, Sheng-Tung & Kuo, Hsiao-I & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2010. "Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(8), pages 2517-2525, August.
    19. Zhang, Zibin & Lohr, Luanne & Escalante, Cesar & Wetzstein, Michael, 2010. "Food versus fuel: What do prices tell us?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 445-451, January.
    20. G. Edward Schuh, 1974. "The Exchange Rate and U. S. Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-13.
    21. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Zhang, Qiang & Reed, Michael R., 2008. "Examining the Impact of the World Crude Oil Price on China's Agricultural Commodity Prices: The Case of Corn, Soybean, and Pork," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6797, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    23. Cha, Kyung Soo & Bae, Jeong Hwan, 2011. "Dynamic impacts of high oil prices on the bioethanol and feedstock markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 753-760, February.
    24. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
    25. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2011. "World oil prices and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from an emerging market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 488-496, May.
    26. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
    27. Ciaian, Pavel & Kancs, d'Artis, 2011. "Interdependencies in the energy-bioenergy-food price systems: A cointegration analysis," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 326-348, January.
    28. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2009. "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 838-851, November.
    29. Natanelov, Valeri & Alam, Mohammad J. & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2011. "Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4971-4984, September.
    30. repec:lic:licosd:29211 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Harri, Ardian & Nalley, Lanier & Hudson, Darren, 2009. "The Relationship between Oil, Exchange Rates, and Commodity Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 501-510, August.
    32. John Baffes, 2010. "More on the energy/nonenergy price link," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(16), pages 1555-1558.
    33. Campiche, Jody L. & Bryant, Henry L. & Richardson, James W. & Outlaw, Joe L., 2007. "Examining the Evolving Correspondence Between Petroleum Prices and Agricultural Commodity Prices," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon 9881, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    34. Nazlioglu, Saban, 2011. "World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2935-2943, May.
    35. Esmaeili, Abdoulkarim & Shokoohi, Zainab, 2011. "Assessing the effect of oil price on world food prices: Application of principal component analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 1022-1025, February.
    36. He, Yanan & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2010. "Global economic activity and crude oil prices: A cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 868-876, July.
    37. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2012. "Oil price, agricultural commodity prices, and the dollar: A panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1098-1104.
    38. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Filip, Ondrej & Janda, Karel & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Zilberman, David, 2019. "Food versus fuel: An updated and expanded evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 152-166.
    2. Karel Janda & Ladislav Kristoufek, 2019. "The relationship between fuel and food prices: Methods, outcomes, and lessons for commodity price risk management," CAMA Working Papers 2019-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2014. "Oil price shocks and agricultural commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 22-35.
    4. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
    5. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2012. "Oil price, agricultural commodity prices, and the dollar: A panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1098-1104.
    6. Giray GOZGOR & Baris KABLAMACI, 2014. "The linkage between oil and agricultural commodity prices in the light of the perceived global risk," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 60(7), pages 332-342.
    7. Sergio Adriani David & Claudio M. C. Inácio & José A. Tenreiro Machado, 2019. "Ethanol Prices and Agricultural Commodities: An Investigation of Their Relationship," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-25, August.
    8. Tanaka, Tetsuji & Guo, Jin & Wang, Xiufang, 2023. "Did biofuel production strengthen the comovements between food and fuel prices? Evidence from ethanol-related markets in the United States," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    9. Kang, Sang Hoon & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2019. "Exploring the time-frequency connectedness and network among crude oil and agriculture commodities V1," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Frijns, Bart & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2016. "Contemporaneous interactions among fuel, biofuel and agricultural commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-10.
    11. Aynur Pala, 2013. "Structural Breaks, Cointegration, and Causality by VECM Analysis of Crude Oil and Food Price," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 238-246.
    12. Guo, Jin & Tanaka, Tetsuji, 2022. "Energy security versus food security: An analysis of fuel ethanol- related markets using the spillover index and partial wavelet coherence approaches," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    13. Hanif, Waqas & Areola Hernandez, Jose & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "Tail dependence risk and spillovers between oil and food prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 195-209.
    14. Anthony N. Rezitis, 2015. "Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Commodity Prices, Crude Oil Prices and US Dollar Exchange Rates using Panel Data Econometric Methods," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 851-868.
    15. Adämmer, Philipp & Bohl, Martin T., 2015. "Speculative bubbles in agricultural prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 67-76.
    16. Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2019. "On the relation between global food and crude oil prices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-432.
    17. Nazlioglu, Saban & Erdem, Cumhur & Soytas, Ugur, 2013. "Volatility spillover between oil and agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 658-665.
    18. Papież, Monika, 2014. "A dynamic analysis of causality between prices of corn, crude oil and ethanol," MPRA Paper 56540, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Maitra, Debasish & Guhathakurta, Kousik & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "The good, the bad and the ugly relation between oil and commodities: An analysis of asymmetric volatility connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    20. Korhan K. Gokmenoglu & Hasan Güngör & Festus Victor Bekun, 2021. "Revisiting the linkage between oil and agricultural commodity prices: Panel evidence from an Agrarian state," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5610-5620, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; exchange rates; agricultural commodity prices; panel cointegration; FMOLS–DOLS estimators; Granger causality; precios del aceite; tipos de cambio; precios de productos agrícolas; cointegración de panel; FMOLS–DOLS; causalidad de Granger;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • N50 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pab:rmcpee:v:26:y:2018:i:1:p:71-83. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Publicación Digital - UPO (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dmupoes.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.