IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea08/6512.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Nonlinearities in the US corn-ethanol-oil price system

Author

Listed:
  • Serra, Teresa
  • Zilberman, David
  • Gil, Jose Maria
  • Goodwin, Barry K.

Abstract

We use a smooth transition vector error correction model to assess price relationships within the US ethanol industry. Daily ethanol, corn and oil futures prices observed from mid-2005 to mid-2007 are used in the analysis. Results indicate the existence of an equilibrium relationship between ethanol, corn and oil prices. However, only ethanol prices adjust, in a non-linear fashion, to deviations from this long-run parity. Generalized impulse response functions indicate that a shock to both oil and corn prices causes a change in ethanol prices of the same sign. Ethanol responses usually reach a peak after about 10 days of the initial shock and fade away within 35 days.

Suggested Citation

  • Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David & Gil, Jose Maria & Goodwin, Barry K., 2008. "Nonlinearities in the US corn-ethanol-oil price system," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6512, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea08:6512
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6512
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hyun J. Jin & Darren L. Frechette, 2004. "Fractional Integration in Agricultural Futures Price Volatilities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(2), pages 432-443.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    4. Milas Costas & Legrenzi Gabriella, 2006. "Non-linear Real Exchange Rate Effects in the UK Labour Market," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-34, March.
    5. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    6. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    7. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    8. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
    9. G. Geoffrey Booth & Yiuman Tse, 1995. "Long memory in interest rate futures markets: A fractional cointegration analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 573-584, August.
    10. Kelvin Balcombe & George Rapsomanikis, 2008. "Bayesian Estimation and Selection of Nonlinear Vector Error Correction Models: The Case of the Sugar-Ethanol-Oil Nexus in Brazil," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 658-668.
    11. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mallory, Mindy L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2012. "How market efficiency and the theory of storage link corn and ethanol markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2157-2166.
    2. Janda, Karel & Kourilek, Jakub, 2016. "Description of Biofuels and Shale Gas Development," MPRA Paper 74885, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Janda, Karel & Kourilek, Jakub, 2016. "Price Comovement Between Biodiesel and Natural Gas," MPRA Paper 74887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Busse, Stefan & Brümmer, Bernhard & Ihle, Rico, 2010. "Investigating Rapeseed Price Volatilities In The Course Of The Food Crisis," 50st Annual Conference, Braunschweig, Germany, September 29-October 1, 2010 93957, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    5. Mallory, Mindy L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2012. "How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets Energy Economics," ISU General Staff Papers 201211010700001537, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Biofuels; United States; Cointegration; Threshold; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea08:6512. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.