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How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets

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Abstract

In this article we use the theories of market efficiency and supply of storage to develop a conceptual link between the corn and ethanol markets and explore statistical evidence for the link. We propose that a long-run no-profit condition is established in distant futures markets for ethanol, corn, and natural gas and then use the theory of storage to define an inter-temporal equilibrium among these prices. The relationship shows that under certain conditions, future price expectations will influence current spot prices and that a short-term relationship between input and output prices will exist. This short-term relationship will contain fixed costs. We demonstrate validity of the theory using a structural price model and then by means of time-series techniques.

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  • Mindy L. Mallory & Dermot J. Hayes & Scott H. Irwin, 2010. "How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets," Midwest Agribusiness Trade Research and Information Center (MATRIC) Publications 10-wp517, Midwest Agribusiness Trade Research and Information Center (MATRIC) at Iowa State University.
  • Handle: RePEc:ias:mpaper:10-wp517
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    Cited by:

    1. Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2015. "Financialization of Agricultural Commodity Markets: Do Financial Data Help to Forecast Agricultural Prices?," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205124, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. Dusan Drabik & Pavel Ciaian & Jan Pokrivcak, 2014. "Biofuels and Vertical Price Transmission: The Case of the U.S. Corn, Ethanol, and Food Markets," LICOS Discussion Papers 35114, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
    3. Zhu, Xueqin & Yan, Shiyu & Smeets, Edward & van Berkum, Siemen, 2017. "How to measure greenhouse gas emissions by fuel type for binary sustainability standards: Average or Marginal emissions? An example of fertilizer use and corn ethanol," Discussion Papers 2017/3, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    4. Zhou, Wei & Babcock, Bruce A., 2014. "Pricing RINs and Corn in a Competitive Storage Model," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170581, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Christiane Baumeister & Reinhard Ellwanger & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6282, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Drabik, Dusan, 2011. "The Theory of Biofuel Policy and Food Grain Prices," Working Papers 126615, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    7. Drabik, Dusan & de Gorter, Harry & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2014. "The effect of biodiesel policies on world biodiesel and oilseed prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 80-88.
    8. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Do oil price increases cause higher food prices?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 691-747, October.
    9. Carriquiry, Miguel, "undated". "An Examination Of The Relationship Between Biodiesel And Soybean Oil Prices Using An Asset Pricing Model," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 236167, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Li, Lisha, 2015. "Three essays on crop yield, crop insurance and climate change," ISU General Staff Papers 201501010800005371, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. de Gorter, Harry & Drabik, Dusan, 2015. "Developing Countries' Policy Responses to Food Price Boom and Biofuel Policies," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211564, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Trujillo-Barrera, Andres & Mallory, Mindy L. & Garcia, Philip, 2012. "Volatility Spillovers in U.S. Crude Oil, Ethanol, and Corn Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(2), August.
    13. Ahmadi, Maryam & Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "How is volatility in commodity markets linked to oil price shocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 11-23.
    14. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
    15. Juan P. Sesmero & Richard K. Perrin & Lilyan E. Fulginiti, 2016. "A Variable Cost Function for Corn Ethanol Plants in the Midwest," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 64(3), pages 565-587, September.
    16. Rajcaniova, Miroslava & Drabik, Dusan & Ciaian, Pavel, 2013. "How policies affect international biofuel price linkages," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 857-865.
    17. Ghoddusi, Hamed, 2017. "Blending under uncertainty: Real options analysis of ethanol plants and biofuels mandates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 110-120.
    18. Kafle, Kashi R. & Pullabhotla, Hemant K, 2014. "Food for the Stomach or Fuel for the Tank: What do Prices Tell Us?," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170273, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Han, Liyan & Zhou, Yimin & Yin, Libo, 2015. "Exogenous impacts on the links between energy and agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 350-358.
    20. Byrne, Joseph P & Sakemoto, Ryuta & Xu, Bing, 2017. "Commodity Price Co-movement: Heterogeneity and the Time Varying Impact of Fundamentals," MPRA Paper 80791, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Drabik, Dušan & Ciaian, Pavel & Pokrivčák, Ján, 2016. "The effect of ethanol policies on the vertical price transmission in corn and food markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 189-199.
    22. Aye, Goodness C., 2016. "Causality between Oil Price and South Africa's Food Price: Time Varying Approach - Relazione di causalità tra prezzo del petrolio e pr ezzo dei prodotti alimentari in Sud Africa: un approccio time var," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(3), pages 193-212.
    23. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2013. "Dissecting Corn Price Movements with Directed Acyclic Graphs," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151279, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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