IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/stmapp/v23y2014i4p577-600.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling nonlinearities in commodity prices using smooth transition regression models with exogenous transition variables

Author

Listed:
  • Hany Fahmy

    ()

Abstract

This paper investigates the nonlinearities in commodity prices using smooth transition regression (STR) models. What distinguishes this paper from the majority of the studies in the smooth transition literature is its use of exogenous transition variables, in addition to the standard autoregressive lags of the dependent variable, in modelling the regime switching behavior of commodity prices. Two exogenous transition variables were found successful in capturing the regime switching behavior of commodity prices: inflation rate and oil price. Inflation rate was capable of capturing the early dynamics (between 1900 and 1950) of the commodity index whereas oil price captured the late ones (between 1970 and 2007). This result motivates the use of common exogenous threshold variables in regime switching models in general and, in particular, the use of inflation and oil price in the STR model when applied to an index of commodity prices. The paper also provides further insight on the issue of co-movement of commodity prices by classifying individual commodities into groups according to their border price (an issue that has been ignored in previous studies on commodity prices), and then trying to find the best common transition variable that can explain the dynamic behavior of each group. The results show that, for traded commodities, individual price series recorded on a free on board basis are driven by macroeconomic news in the exporting country. On the other hand, individual price series recorded on a cost and freight basis are driven by oil price and macroeconomic news variables in the importing country. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Hany Fahmy, 2014. "Modelling nonlinearities in commodity prices using smooth transition regression models with exogenous transition variables," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(4), pages 577-600, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:23:y:2014:i:4:p:577-600
    DOI: 10.1007/s10260-014-0275-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10260-014-0275-6
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    2. Anna Persson & Timo Teräsvirta, 2003. "The net barter terms of trade: A smooth transition approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 81-97.
    3. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399.
    4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    5. Bleaney, Michael F & Greenaway, David, 1993. "Long-Run Trends in the Relative Price of Primary Commodities and in the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 349-363, July.
    6. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    7. von Hagen, Juergen, 1989. "Relative Commodity Prices and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(4), pages 497-503, October.
    8. Powell, Andrew, 1991. "Commodity and Developing Country Terms of Trade: What Does the Long Run Show?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1485-1496, November.
    9. Cuddington, John T & Urzua, Carlos M, 1989. "Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 426-442, June.
    10. Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    11. Helg, Rodolfo, 1991. "A note on the stationarity of the primary commodities relative price index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 55-60, May.
    12. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Labys, Walter C., 2006. "Evidence for chaotic dependence between US inflation and commodity prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 256-266, March.
    13. Ardeni, Pier Giorgio & Wright, Brian, 1992. "The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Reappraisal Independent of Stationarity Hypotheses," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(413), pages 803-812, July.
    14. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1992. "Monetary policy rules and the indicator properties of asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 303-336, April.
    15. Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1977. "Martingale, market efficiency and commodity prices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17.
    16. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:23:y:2014:i:4:p:577-600. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Mallaigh Nolan). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.