IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v140y2024ics0140988324006832.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Geopolitical risk and energy price crash risk

Author

Listed:
  • Apergis, Nicholas
  • Fahmy, Hany

Abstract

This paper explores the link between geopolitical risks and energy prices crash risk. Studying energy price crashes is important given the sharp fall in oil prices in 2008 and 2014. The analysis focuses on three energy markets: natural gas, oil, and coal, while it employs two measures: the negative coefficient of skewness and the down-to-up volatility, to construct proxies for crash risks. The period of examination is January 2000 to December 2023, whereas that for coal is January 2010 to December 2023. The study employs a modified version of the smooth transition autoregressive model. The results show that, within the modelling framework, coal and oil crash risks are driven by the cyclical behavior of geopolitical acts, whereas natural gas crash risks by geopolitical threats. Causality tests confirm the prediction that geopolitical tensions cause crash risks in energy markets. The results also confirm that the “Economic Activity Channel” is only valid for energy markets driven by geopolitical threats. Energy market regulators should be concerned about crash risks, given that the energy supply shows cyclical boom and bust cycles in prices and production. Crash risks could also potentially cause a fall in investments required to enhance energy efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Apergis, Nicholas & Fahmy, Hany, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and energy price crash risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:140:y:2024:i:c:s0140988324006832
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107975
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988324006832
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107975?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jing Zhang & Zhanpeng Bi & May Hu & Qingzhu Meng, 2023. "Shadow banking and commercial bank: evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 72-89, January.
    2. Zhou, Wei & Chen, Yan & Chen, Jin, 2022. "Risk spread in multiple energy markets: Extreme volatility spillover network analysis before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    3. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    4. Elie Bouri & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2019. "Geopolitical Risks and Movements in Islamic Bond and Equity Markets: A Note," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 367-379, April.
    5. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    6. Jin, Li & Myers, Stewart C., 2006. "R2 around the world: New theory and new tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 257-292, February.
    7. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
    8. Razek, Noha & Galvani, Valentina & Rajan, Surya & McQuinn, Brian, 2023. "Can U.S. strategic petroleum reserves calm a tight market exacerbated by the Russia–Ukraine conflict?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    9. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 139-160, Winter.
    10. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    11. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1504, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    12. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2001. "Forecasting crashes: trading volume, past returns, and conditional skewness in stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 345-381, September.
    13. Ioannidis, Filippos & Kosmidou, Kyriaki & Savva, Christos & Theodossiou, Panayiotis, 2021. "Electricity pricing using a periodic GARCH model with conditional skewness and kurtosis components," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    14. Abebe Hailemariam & Kris Ivanovski, 2021. "The impact of geopolitical risk on tourism," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(22), pages 3134-3140, November.
    15. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 131-158.
    16. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    17. Daxuan Cheng & Yin Liao & Zheyao Pan, 2023. "The geopolitical risk premium in the commodity futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(8), pages 1069-1090, August.
    18. Pedro Santa‐Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2003. "The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1841-1872, October.
    19. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    20. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    21. John Elder & Apostolos Serletis, 2010. "Oil Price Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1137-1159, September.
    22. Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 102-127, February.
    23. Khurshid, Adnan & Khan, Khalid & Rauf, Abdur & Cifuentes-Faura, Javier, 2024. "Effect of geopolitical risk on resources prices in the global and Russian-Ukrainian context: A novel Bayesian structural model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    24. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Tran, Vuong Thao & Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and bank stability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    25. Wei Zhu, 2016. "Accruals and price crashes," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 349-399, June.
    26. Kim, Jeong-Bon & Li, Yinghua & Zhang, Liandong, 2011. "Corporate tax avoidance and stock price crash risk: Firm-level analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 639-662, June.
    27. Refk Selmi & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Mark E. Wohar, 2023. "What drives most jumps in global crude oil prices? Fundamental shortage conditions, cartel, geopolitics or the behaviour of financial market participants," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 598-618, March.
    28. Ehsan Rasoulinezhad & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Jinsok Sung & Nisit Panthamit, 2020. "Geopolitical Risk and Energy Transition in Russia: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, March.
    29. Awartani, Basel & Maghyereh, Aktham Issa, 2013. "Dynamic spillovers between oil and stock markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 28-42.
    30. Hutton, Amy P. & Marcus, Alan J. & Tehranian, Hassan, 2009. "Opaque financial reports, R2, and crash risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 67-86, October.
    31. Meng, Xin & Yu, Yanni, 2023. "Does the Russia-Ukraine conflict affect gasoline prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    32. Khalid Khan & Chi-Wei Su & Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi, 2022. "Guns and Blood: A Review of Geopolitical Risk and Defence Expenditures," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 42-58, January.
    33. Jia, Shaoqing & Yang, Liuyong & Zhou, Fangzhao, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    34. Le, Anh-Tuan & Tran, Thao Phuong, 2021. "Does geopolitical risk matter for corporate investment? Evidence from emerging countries in Asia," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    35. Mo, Bin & Nie, He & Zhao, Rongjie, 2024. "Dynamic nonlinear effects of geopolitical risks on commodities: Fresh evidence from quantile methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    36. Filippos Ioannidis & Kyriaki Kosmidou & Iordanis Kalaitzoglou & Kostas Andriosopoulos & Emilios Galariotis, 2023. "Investing in Bridging Fuels: The Unit Commitment Problem of Public vs. Private Ventures," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(1), pages 93-118, January.
    37. Monge, Manuel & Romero Rojo, María Fátima & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical risk on the behavior of oil prices and freight rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    38. Don Bredin & John Elder & Stilianos Fountas, 2010. "The Effects of Uncertainty about Oil Prices in G-7," Working Papers 200840, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    39. Dimitrios Asteriou & Costas Siriopoulos, 2000. "The Role of Political Instability in Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Greece," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(3), pages 355-374, November.
    40. Shen, Huayu & Liang, Yue & Li, Hanwen & Liu, Jie & Lu, Guangxi, 2021. "Does geopolitical risk promote mergers and acquisitions of listed companies in energy and electric power industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    41. Anatolijs Prohorovs, 2022. "Russia’s War in Ukraine: Consequences for European Countries’ Businesses and Economies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-15, July.
    42. Khalfaoui, R. & Boutahar, M. & Boubaker, H., 2015. "Analyzing volatility spillovers and hedging between oil and stock markets: Evidence from wavelet analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 540-549.
    43. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    44. Abdel-Latif, Hany & El-Gamal, Mahmoud, 2020. "Financial liquidity, geopolitics, and oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    45. Fiorillo, Paolo & Meles, Antonio & Pellegrino, Luigi Raffaele & Verdoliva, Vincenzo, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and stock price crash risk: The mitigating role of ESG performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    46. Yang, Ming-Yuan & Chen, Zhanghangjian & Liang, Zongzheng & Li, Sai-Ping, 2023. "Dynamic and asymmetric connectedness in the global “Carbon-Energy-Stock” system under shocks from exogenous events," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    47. Muhammad Khalid Anser & Qasim Raza Syed & Hooi Hooi Lean & Andrew Adewale Alola & Munir Ahmad, 2021. "Do Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk Lead to Environmental Degradation? Evidence from Emerging Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-15, May.
    48. Fahmy, Hany, 2022. "The rise in investors’ awareness of climate risks after the Paris Agreement and the clean energy-oil-technology prices nexus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    49. Kim, Jeong-Bon & Li, Yinghua & Zhang, Liandong, 2011. "CFOs versus CEOs: Equity incentives and crashes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 713-730, September.
    50. van Eyden, Reneé & Difeto, Mamothoana & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Oil price volatility and economic growth: Evidence from advanced economies using more than a century’s data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 612-621.
    51. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, 2016. "Editor's Choice Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(1), pages 1-52.
    52. Talbot, Edward & Artiach, Tracy & Faff, Robert, 2013. "What drives the commodity price beta of oil industry stocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-15.
    53. Filippos Ioannidis, Kyriaki Kosmidou, Iordanis Kalaitzoglou, Kostas Andriosopoulos, and Emilios Galariotis, 2023. "Investing in Bridging Fuels: The Unit Commitment Problem of Public vs. Private Ventures," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    54. Callen, Jeffrey L. & Fang, Xiaohua, 2015. "Short interest and stock price crash risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 181-194.
    55. Paolo Pasquariello, 2018. "Government Intervention and Arbitrage," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(9), pages 3344-3408.
    56. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    57. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yuan, Zihao & He, Zhi-Wen & Xiao, Fu, 2024. "Do geopolitical risks always harm energy security? Their non-linear effects and mechanism," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    58. Gong, Xu & Sun, Yi & Du, Zhili, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and China's oil security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    59. Rabeh Khalfaoui & M. Boutahar & H. Boubaker, 2015. "Analyzing volatility spillovers and hedging between oil and stock markets: Evidence from wavelet analysis," Post-Print hal-03797593, HAL.
    60. Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1007-1032, July.
    61. Hany Fahmy, 2014. "Modelling nonlinearities in commodity prices using smooth transition regression models with exogenous transition variables," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(4), pages 577-600, November.
    62. Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge, 2019. "Oil price uncertainty and unemployment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 577-583.
    63. Muğaloğlu, Erhan & Kuşkaya, Sevda & Aldieri, Luigi & Alnour, Mohammed & Hoque, Mohammad Enamul & Magazzino, Cosimo & Bilgili, Faik, 2023. "Dynamic regime differences in the market behavior of primary natural resources in response to geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    64. Bali, Turan G. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Wen, Quan, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Uncertainty Premium in the Corporate Bond Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(5), pages 1653-1678, August.
    65. Bettarelli, Luca & Estefania-Flores, Julia & Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Pizzuto, Pietro, 2023. "Energy inflation and consumption inequality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rao, Amar & Lucey, Brian & Kumar, Satish, 2025. "Temporal dynamics of geopolitical risk: An empirical study on energy commodity interest-adjusted spreads," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Xiao, Jihong & Chen, Xian & Li, Yang & Wen, Fenghua, 2022. "Oil price uncertainty and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. Makrychoriti, Panagiota & Pyrgiotakis, Emmanouil G., 2024. "Firm-level political risk and stock price crashes," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Min Jung Kang & Y. Han (Andy) Kim & Qunfeng Liao, 2020. "Do bankers on the board reduce crash risk?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(3), pages 684-723, June.
    5. Andreou, Christoforos K. & Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Lambertides, Neophytos, 2021. "Financial distress risk and stock price crashes," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Fantazzini, Dean, 2016. "The oil price crash in 2014/15: Was there a (negative) financial bubble?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 383-396.
    7. Jiang, Kangqi & Du, Xinyi & Chen, Zhongfei, 2022. "Firms' digitalization and stock price crash risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    8. Li, Tao & Xiang, Cheng & Liu, Zhuo & Cai, Wenwu, 2020. "Annual report disclosure timing and stock price crash risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Yang, Jun & Lu, Jing & Xiang, Cheng, 2020. "Company visits and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    10. Choi, Young Mok & Park, Kunsu, 2022. "Zero-leverage policy and stock price crash risk: Evidence from Korea," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    11. Chen, Yangyang & Fan, Qingliang & Yang, Xin & Zolotoy, Leon, 2021. "CEO early-life disaster experience and stock price crash risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    12. Zhu, Bo & Wang, Yiwei, 2024. "Green governance and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    13. Dan Hu & Eunju Lee & Bingxin Li, 2023. "Trade secrets protection and stock price crash risk," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 395-421, May.
    14. Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar & Chowdhury, Hasibul & Han, Hien Duc, 2021. "CEO centrality and stock price crash risk," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    15. Chung, Chune Young & Thi Ngoc Dung, Pham & Liu, Chang, 2024. "Institutional blockholder monitoring and stock price crash risk," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    16. Kim, Jeong-Bon & Liao, Shushu & Liu, Yangke, 2021. "Married CEOs and Stock Price Crash Risk," QBS Working Paper Series 2021/09, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    17. Meng, Yongqiang & Shen, Dehua & Xiong, Xiong, 2023. "When stock price crash risk meets fundamentals," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    18. Surendranath Jory & Thanh Ngo & Hongxia Wang, 2021. "Non‐operating earnings and firm risk," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 95-123, January.
    19. Hu, Gang & Liu, Yiye & Wang, Jacqueline Wenjie & Zhou, Gaoguang & Zhu, Xindong, 2022. "Insider ownership and stock price crash risk around the globe," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    20. Bhargava, Rahul & Faircloth, Sheri & Zeng, Hongchao, 2017. "Takeover protection and stock price crash risk: Evidence from state antitakeover laws," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 177-184.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy markets; Crash risk; Economic activity channel; Geopolitical acts; Geopolitical threats;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:140:y:2024:i:c:s0140988324006832. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.