IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ucd/wpaper/200840.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effects of Uncertainty about Oil Prices in G-7

Author

Listed:
  • Don Bredin

    (University College Dublin)

  • John Elder

    (North Dakota State University)

  • Stilianos Fountas

    (University of Macedonia)

Abstract

The failure of decreases in oil prices to produce expansions that mirror the contractions associated with higher oil prices has been a topic of considerable interest. We investigate for the G-7 one explanation for this feature - the role of uncertainty about oil prices. In particular, we examine the link between oil price uncertainty and industrial production utilizing a very general and °exible empirical methodology that is based on a structural VAR modi¯ed to accommodate multivariate GARCH in mean. Our primary result is that oil price uncertainty has had a negative and signi¯cant e®ect on industrial production in four of the G-7 countries - Canada, France, UK and US. Impulse-response analysis suggests that, in the short-run, both positive and negative oil shocks may be contractionary. Our result helps explain why the sudden collapse in oil prices in the mid-1980's failed to produce rapid expansion in the G-7, and why the steady increases in oil prices from 2003-2007 did not induce recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Don Bredin & John Elder & Stilianos Fountas, 2010. "The Effects of Uncertainty about Oil Prices in G-7," Working Papers 200840, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucd:wpaper:200840
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ucd.ie/geary/static/publications/workingpapers/gearywp200840.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2008
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil; Volatility; Vector autoregression; Multivariate GARCH-in-Mean VAR.;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucd:wpaper:200840. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Geary Tech). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/geucdie.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.