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The Macroeconomic Uncertainty Premium in the Corporate Bond Market

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  • Bali, Turan G.
  • Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar
  • Wen, Quan

Abstract

We examine the role of macroeconomic uncertainty in the cross section of corporate bonds and find a significant uncertainty premium for both investment-grade (IG) (0.40% per month) and non-investment-grade (NIG) (0.81% per month) bonds. The economic-uncertainty premium declines as we progressively remove downgraded bonds, indicating that the premium represents an increase in required returns for bonds with higher credit and macroeconomic risk. The economic-uncertainty premia vary across equities and bonds in a manner consistent with the heterogeneous risk-aversion levels of dominant players in equities (retail investors) versus bonds (institutional investors).

Suggested Citation

  • Bali, Turan G. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Wen, Quan, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Uncertainty Premium in the Corporate Bond Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(5), pages 1653-1678, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:56:y:2021:i:5:p:1653-1678_5
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