IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1711.03506.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Measuring Price Discovery between Nearby and Deferred Contracts in Storable and Non-Storable Commodity Futures Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Zhepeng Hu
  • Mindy Mallory
  • Teresa Serra
  • Philip Garcia

Abstract

Futures market contracts with varying maturities are traded concurrently and the speed at which they process information is of value in understanding the pricing discovery process. Using price discovery measures, including Putnins (2013) information leadership share and intraday data, we quantify the proportional contribution of price discovery between nearby and deferred contracts in the corn and live cattle futures markets. Price discovery is more systematic in the corn than in the live cattle market. On average, nearby contracts lead all deferred contracts in price discovery in the corn market, but have a relatively less dominant role in the live cattle market. In both markets, the nearby contract loses dominance when its relative volume share dips below 50%, which occurs about 2-3 weeks before expiration in corn and 5-6 weeks before expiration in live cattle. Regression results indicate that the share of price discovery is most closely linked to trading volume but is also affected, to far less degree, by time to expiration, backwardation, USDA announcements and market crashes. The effects of these other factors vary between the markets which likely reflect the difference in storability as well as other market-related characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhepeng Hu & Mindy Mallory & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia, 2017. "Measuring Price Discovery between Nearby and Deferred Contracts in Storable and Non-Storable Commodity Futures Markets," Papers 1711.03506, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1711.03506
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1711.03506
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baillie, Richard T. & Geoffrey Booth, G. & Tse, Yiuman & Zabotina, Tatyana, 2002. "Price discovery and common factor models," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-321, July.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Michael K. Adjemian, 2012. "Quantifying the WASDE Announcement Effect," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(1), pages 238-256.
    4. Dorfmann, Jeffrey & Karali, Berna, 2015. "A Nonparametric Search for Information Effects from USDA Reports," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-20.
    5. deB. Harris, Frederick H. & McInish, Thomas H. & Wood, Robert A., 2002. "Security price adjustment across exchanges: an investigation of common factor components for Dow stocks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 277-308, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1711.03506. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.