IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v45y2025i8p896-916.html

Information Flow Across the Futures Term Structure: Evidence From Chinese Corn Futures Market

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Xie
  • Yi An

Abstract

In China's corn futures market, the dominant contracts, characterized by the highest liquidity, were traditionally concentrated in those expiring within 3 to 6 months. However, the market structure underwent significant shifts in 2023. We use 1‐min trading data of China's corn futures from 2019 to 2023 and apply an information entropy model to explore the information flow between contracts with different maturities. Our findings indicate that an increase in market liquidity enhances mutual‐information levels, whereas changes in market structure have an adverse effect. Before the structural changes, contracts with maturities of 5 to 9 months primarily served as information senders, whereas contracts with maturities exceeding 9 months acted as the main receivers. Since the change in market structure, contracts expiring within 2 to 3 months emerged as critical senders of information transmission. Additionally, the COVID‐19 pandemic significantly impacted information flow.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Xie & Yi An, 2025. "Information Flow Across the Futures Term Structure: Evidence From Chinese Corn Futures Market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(8), pages 896-916, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:45:y:2025:i:8:p:896-916
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22595
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22595
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/fut.22595?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhepeng Hu & Mindy Mallory & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia, 2020. "Measuring price discovery between nearby and deferred contracts in storable and nonstorable commodity futures markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(6), pages 825-840, November.
    2. Sanders, Dwight R. & Garcia, Philip & Manfredo, Mark R., 2008. "Information Content in Deferred Futures Prices: Live Cattle and Hogs," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(01), pages 1-12, April.
    3. Delphine H. Lautier & Franck Raynaud & Michel A. Robe, 2019. "Shock Propagation Across the Futures Term Structure: Evidence from Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(3), pages 125-154, May.
    4. Wong, Woon K. & Tan, Dijun & Tian, Yixiang, 2009. "Informed trading and liquidity in the Shanghai Stock Exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 66-73, March.
    5. Jian Yang & Zheng Li & Tao Wang, 2021. "Price discovery in chinese agricultural futures markets: A comprehensive look," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 536-555, April.
    6. Jianqing Ruan & Qingwen Cai & Songqing Jin, 2021. "Impact of COVID‐19 and Nationwide Lockdowns on Vegetable Prices: Evidence from Wholesale Markets in China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(5), pages 1574-1594, October.
    7. Joseph P. Janzen & Michael K. Adjemian, 2017. "Estimating the Location of World Wheat Price Discovery," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(5), pages 1188-1207.
    8. Wei Xie & Yi An, 2023. "Should dominant contracts move to nearby months?--Evidence from Chinese agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(41), pages 4817-4840, September.
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5465 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Assaf, Ata & Charif, Husni & Demir, Ender, 2022. "Information sharing among cryptocurrencies: Evidence from mutual information and approximate entropy during COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    11. Michel A. Robe & Jonathan Wallen, 2016. "Fundamentals, Derivatives Market Information and Oil Price Volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 317-344, April.
    12. Chantziara, Thalia & Skiadopoulos, George, 2008. "Can the dynamics of the term structure of petroleum futures be forecasted? Evidence from major markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 962-985, May.
    13. Li, Miao & Xiong, Tao, 2021. "Dynamic price discovery in Chinese agricultural futures markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    14. Mert Demir & Terrence F. Martell & Jun Wang, 2019. "The trilogy of China cotton markets: The lead–lag relationship among spot, forward, and futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 522-534, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qianqian Mao & Jens-Peter Loy & Thomas Glauben & Yanjun Ren, . "Are futures markets functioning well for agricultural perishables? Evidence from China's apple futures market," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 0.
    2. Yamamoto, Shuhei & Janzen, Joseph P. & Serra, Teresa, 2024. "Autopsy of a futures market failure: Japan’s Dojima rice futures in the early 21st century," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    3. Qianqian Mao & Jens-Peter Loy & Thomas Glauben & Yanjun Ren, 2023. "Are futures markets functioning well for agricultural perishables? Evidence from China's apple futures market," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 69(12), pages 471-484.
    4. Bingzi Jin & Xiaojie Xu, 2025. "Machine learning price index forecasts of flat steel products," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 38(1), pages 97-117, March.
    5. Su, Zhenqing & Li, Jiankun & Pang, Qiwei & Su, Miao, 2025. "China futures market and world container shipping economy: An exploratory analysis based on deep learning," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    6. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2022. "Commodity price forecasting via neural networks for coffee, corn, cotton, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, sugar, and wheat," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 169-181, July.
    7. Han, Qian & Zhao, Chengzhi & Chen, Jing & Guo, Qian, 2025. "Does asynchronous market update matter? Re-examining the price discovery of stock index and futures in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    8. David K. Ding & Wui Boon Lim, 2024. "Lessons from the Demise of the Brent Crude Oil Futures Contract on the Singapore Exchange," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-22, June.
    9. Liwei Jin & Xianghui Yuan & Shihao Wang & Peiran Li & Feng Lian, 2022. "Trades or quotes: Which drives price discovery? Evidence from Chinese index futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(12), pages 2235-2247, December.
    10. Ziliang Yu & Jian Yang & Robert I. Webb, 2023. "Price discovery in China's crude oil futures markets: An emerging Asian benchmark?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 297-324, March.
    11. Haochuan Wu & Chi Gong, 2025. "Modeling the Ningbo Container Freight Index Through Deep Learning: Toward Sustainable Shipping and Regional Economic Resilience," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-21, May.
    12. Zunxin Zheng & Gaiyan Zhang & Yingzhao Ni, 2024. "Financial regulatory arbitrage and the financialization of commodities," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(5), pages 826-853, May.
    13. Ruwei Zhao & Xiong Xiong & Junjun Ma & Yuzhao Zhang & Yongjie Zhang, 2025. "Baidu News and the return volatility of Chinese commodity futures: evidence for the sequential information arrival hypothesis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, December.
    14. Bingzi Jin & Xiaojie Xu, 2025. "Forecasts of coking coal futures price indices through Gaussian process regressions," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 38(1), pages 203-217, March.
    15. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2023. "Steel price index forecasting through neural networks: the composite index, long products, flat products, and rolled products," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(4), pages 563-582, December.
    16. Mathias Schneid Tessmann & Carlos Enrique Carrasco-Gutierrez & Alexandre Vasconcelos Lima, 2023. "Determinants of Corn and Soybean Futures Prices Traded on the Brazilian Stock Exchange: An ARDL Approach," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(1), pages 1-65, January.
    17. An N. Q. Cao & Michel A. Robe, 2022. "Market uncertainty and sentiment around USDA announcements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 250-275, February.
    18. Li, Miao & Xiong, Tao, 2021. "Dynamic price discovery in Chinese agricultural futures markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    19. Chen, Bin-xia & Sun, Yan-lin, 2022. "The impact of VIX on China’s financial market: A new perspective based on high-dimensional and time-varying methods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    20. Dai, Yun-Shi & Huynh, Ngoc Quang Anh & Zheng, Qing-Huan & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Correlation structure analysis of the global agricultural futures market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:45:y:2025:i:8:p:896-916. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.