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Livestock Futures Markets And Rational Price Formation: Evidence For Live Cattle And Live Hogs

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  • Koontz, Stephen R.
  • Hudson, Michael A.
  • Hughes, Matthew W.

Abstract

The efficiency of livestock futures markets continues to receive attention, particularly with regard to their forward pricing or forecasting ability. The purpose of this paper is to present a more general theory that encompasses the forward pricing concept. It is argued that futures contract prices for competitively produced nonstorable commodities, such as live cattle and live hogs, follow a rational formation process. Futures contract prices reflect expected market conditions when contracts are sufficiently close to the delivery month that the supply of the underlying commodity cannot be changed. However, prior to the period when future supplies are relatively fixed, futures contract prices should adjust to reflect the competitive equilibrium, where output price equals average costs of production. Presented evidence suggests that live cattle and live hog futures markets support the rational price formation hypothesis: prices for distant contracts reflect average costs of feeding. Implications for risk management strategies are considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Koontz, Stephen R. & Hudson, Michael A. & Hughes, Matthew W., 1992. "Livestock Futures Markets And Rational Price Formation: Evidence For Live Cattle And Live Hogs," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(01), pages 1-17, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:sojoae:30384
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.30384
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    2. Colling, Phil L. & Irwin, Scott H., 1989. "The Reaction Of Live Hog Futures Prices To Usda Hogs And Pigs Reports," 1989 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 2, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 270490, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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    Cited by:

    1. Evans, Kevin J. & Streeter, Deborah H. & Hudson, Michael A., 1992. "An Integrated Approach to Modeling Price Volatility in the Live Cattle Futures Market," Staff Papers 121352, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    2. Kastens, Terry L. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1993. "Expectations of Cattle Feeding Investors in Feeder Cattle Placements," Staff Papers 118159, Kansas State University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    3. Unterschultz, James R., 2000. "New Instruments For Co-Ordination And Risk Sharing Within The Canadian Beef Industry," Project Report Series 24046, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
    4. Kastens, Terry L. & Jones, Rodney D. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1998. "Futures-Based Price Forecasts For Agricultural Producers And Businesses," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), pages 1-14, July.
    5. Kastens, Terry L. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1994. "Cattle Feeder Behavior And Feeder Cattle Placements," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Kastens, Terry L. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1996. "Efficiency Tests Of July Kansas City Wheat Futures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 1-12, December.

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