IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/abk/jajeba/ajebasp.2019.19.34.html

Some searches may not work properly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

   My bibliography  Save this article

Efficiency and Forecast Performance of Commodity Futures Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Bernardina Algieri
  • Matthias Kalkuhl

Abstract

The present study empirically investigates market efficiency and the potential factors of inefficiency in the main non-energy commodity futures markets: maize, soybeans and wheat. With efficient markets, futures prices can be used as commodity price forecasts, with inefficient markets futures prices are not able to predict spot prices. Technically, exploring the drivers of inefficiency means to assess the determinants of forecast errors, i.e. the factors affecting the difference between realized spot prices and predicted future spot prices. The analysis is carried out using first a traditional test of efficiency for spot and futures prices and then implementing a more sophisticated GARCH analysis at a daily and weekly frequency. The results show that maize, soybeans and wheat markets are not informationally efficient. The realized price volatility of futures markets, the time to maturity, open interest, trading volumes and speculative measures are significant factors explaining forecast errors. In particular, short-term speculation (scalping activity) increases the noise in the information formation process. Similarly, price volatility, lack of liquidity and long contract maturity horizon raise forecast errors, while long-term speculation and speculative pressure reduce errors. The analysis suggests that knowing the causes of forecast errors, would allow to control for such factors and therefore to ameliorate the forecast accuracy of commodity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernardina Algieri & Matthias Kalkuhl, 2019. "Efficiency and Forecast Performance of Commodity Futures Markets," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 11(1), pages 19-34, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:abk:jajeba:ajebasp.2019.19.34
    DOI: 10.3844/ajebasp.2019.19.34
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://thescipub.com/pdf/ajebasp.2019.19.34.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://thescipub.com/abstract/ajebasp.2019.19.34
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3844/ajebasp.2019.19.34?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    2. Graciela Kaminsky & Manmohan S. Kumar, 1990. "Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 670-699, September.
    3. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2015. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums, and the Theory of Storage," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 4, pages 79-102, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Bernardina Algieri, 2014. "A roller coaster ride: an empirical investigation of the main drivers of the international wheat price," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(4), pages 459-475, July.
    5. Neil Kellard & Paul Newbold & Tony Rayner & Christine Ennew, 1999. "The relative efficiency of commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 413-432, June.
    6. Jebabli, Ikram & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Time-varying efficiency in food and energy markets: Evidence and implications," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 97-114.
    7. Manera, Matteo & Nicolini, Marcella & Vignati, Ilaria, 2013. "Futures Price Volatility in Commodities Markets: The Role of Short Term vs Long Term Speculation," Energy: Resources and Markets 151372, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    8. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    9. Jawadi, Fredj & Ftiti, Zied & Hdia, Mouna, 2017. "Assessing efficiency and investment opportunities in commodities: A time series and portfolio simulations approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 567-588.
    10. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    11. Beck, Stacie E, 1993. "A Rational Expectations Model of Time Varying Risk Premia in Commodities Futures Markets: Theory and Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(1), pages 149-168, February.
    12. Menzie D. Chinn & Olivier Coibion, 2014. "The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 607-636, July.
    13. Santos, Joseph M., 2009. "Grain Futures Markets: What Have They Learned?," 2009 Conference, April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri 53040, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    14. Mr. Tonny Lybek & Mr. Abdourahmane Sarr, 2002. "Measuring Liquidity in Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 2002/232, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Laws, Jason & Thompson, John, 2004. "The efficiency of financial futures markets: Tests of prediction accuracy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 155(2), pages 284-298, June.
    16. Moosa, Imad A. & Silvapulle, Param, 2000. "The price-volume relationship in the crude oil futures market Some results based on linear and nonlinear causality testing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 11-30, February.
    17. Georgios Bampinas & Theodore Panagiotidis & Christina Rouska, 2019. "Volatility persistence and asymmetry under the microscope: the role of information demand for gold and oil," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(1), pages 180-197, February.
    18. Algieri, Bernardina & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Koch, Nicolas, 2017. "A tale of two tails: Explaining extreme events in financialized agricultural markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 256-269.
    19. Du, Xiaodong & Yu, Cindy L. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2011. "Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 497-503, May.
    20. Algieri, Bernardina & Leccadito, Arturo, 2019. "Price volatility and speculative activities in futures commodity markets: A combination of combinations of p-values test," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 40-54.
    21. Mr. David A Reichsfeld & Mr. Shaun K. Roache, 2011. "Do Commodity Futures Help Forecast Spot Prices?," IMF Working Papers 2011/254, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Roselyne Joyeux & George Milunovich, 2010. "Testing market efficiency in the EU carbon futures market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(10), pages 803-809.
    23. Roger A. Fujihara & Mbodja Mougoué, 1997. "An examination of linear and nonlinear causal relationships between price variability and volume in petroleum futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 385-416, June.
    24. A. J. Aulton & C. T. Ennew & A. J. Rayner, 1997. "Efficiency Tests Of Futures Markets For Uk Agricultural Commodities," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1‐3), pages 408-424, January.
    25. Martin T. Bohl, Pierre Siklos, Claudia Wellenreuther, 2018. "Speculative Activity and Returns to Volatility of Chinese Major Agricultural Commodity Futures," LCERPA Working Papers 0111, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 30 Jan 2018.
    26. Philip Garcia & Scott H. Irwin & Aaron Smith, 2015. "Futures Market Failure?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 40-64.
    27. Yang Liu & Liyan Han & Libo Yin, 2018. "Does news uncertainty matter for commodity futures markets? Heterogeneity in energy and non‐energy sectors," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(10), pages 1246-1261, October.
    28. Andrew McKenzie & Matthew Holt, 2002. "Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1519-1532.
    29. H. Holly Wang & Bingfan Ke, 2005. "Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(2), pages 125-141, June.
    30. George P. Papaioannou & Christos Dikaiakos & Akylas C. Stratigakos & Panos C. Papageorgiou & Konstantinos F. Krommydas, 2019. "Testing the Efficiency of Electricity Markets Using a New Composite Measure Based on Nonlinear TS Tools," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-30, February.
    31. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    32. Michael A. Pizzi & Andrew J. Economopoulos & Heather M. O'Neill, 1998. "An examination of the relationship between stock index cash and futures markets: A cointegration approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(3), pages 297-305, May.
    33. T. Randall Fortenbery & Hector O. Zapata, 1993. "An examination of cointegration relations between futures and local grain markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(8), pages 921-932, December.
    34. Kastens, Terry L. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1996. "Efficiency Tests Of July Kansas City Wheat Futures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 1-12, December.
    35. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L. & Wellenreuther, Claudia, 2018. "Speculative activity and returns volatility of Chinese agricultural commodity futures," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 69-91.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Algieri, Bernardina & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2014. "Back to the Futures: An Assessment of Commodity Market Efficiency and Forecast Error Drivers," Discussion Papers 187159, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    2. Algirdas Justinas Staugaitis & Bernardas Vaznonis, 2022. "Financial Speculation Impact on Agricultural and Other Commodity Return Volatility: Implications for Sustainable Development and Food Security," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-27, November.
    3. Mohanty, Sunil K. & Mishra, Sibanjan, 2020. "Regulatory reform and market efficiency: The case of Indian agricultural commodity futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Nordier, Jean-Pierre, 2021. "Identifying possible misspecification in South African soybean oil future contracts," Research Theses 334756, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    5. Wang, H. Holly & Ke, Bingfan, 2005. "Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(2), pages 1-17.
    6. Bernardina Algieri, 2021. "Fast & furious: Do psychological and legal factors affect commodity price volatility?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 980-1017, April.
    7. Xiaokang Hou & Shah Fahad & Peipei Zhao & Beibei Yan & Tianjun Liu, 2022. "The Trilogy of the Chinese Apple Futures Market: Price Discovery, Risk-Hedging and Cointegration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-16, October.
    8. Sibanjan Mishra, 2019. "Testing Martingale Hypothesis Using Variance Ratio Tests: Evidence from High-frequency Data of NCDEX Soya Bean Futures," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 20(6), pages 1407-1422, December.
    9. Sophie van Huellen, 2018. "How financial investment distorts food prices: evidence from U.S. grain markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(2), pages 171-181, March.
    10. Markos Farag, Stephen Snudden, Greg Upton, 2024. "Can Futures Prices Predict the Real Price of Primary Commodities?," LCERPA Working Papers jc0145, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 2024.
    11. Jerry Coakley & Jian Dollery & Neil Kellard, 2011. "Long memory and structural breaks in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(11), pages 1076-1113, November.
    12. Jebabli, Ikram & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Time-varying efficiency in food and energy markets: Evidence and implications," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 97-114.
    13. Jena, Sangram Keshari & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Distributional predictability between commodity spot and futures: Evidence from nonparametric causality-in-quantiles tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 615-628.
    14. Narinder Pal Singh & Archana Singh, 2017. "Empirical Investigation on Food Inflation and Efficiency Issues in Indian Agri-futures Market," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 3(2), pages 156-165, November.
    15. Shashi Gupta & Himanshu Choudhary & D. R. Agarwal, 2018. "An Empirical Analysis of Market Efficiency and Price Discovery in Indian Commodity Market," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 771-789, June.
    16. Zhige Wu & Alex Maynard & Alfons Weersink & Getu Hailu, 2018. "Asymmetric spot‐futures price adjustments in grain markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(12), pages 1549-1564, December.
    17. Chang, Chiu-Lan, 2024. "Extreme events, economic uncertainty and speculation on occurrences of price bubbles in crude oil futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    18. Andreas Brunhart, 2013. "Der Klein(st)staat Liechtenstein und seine grossen Nachbarländer: Eine wachstums- und konjunkturanalytische Gegenüberstellung," Arbeitspapiere 44, Liechtenstein-Institut.
    19. Kapil Gupta & Balwinder Singh, 2009. "Information Memory and Pricing Efficiency of Futures Contracts," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 8(2), pages 191-250, May.
    20. Pedro M G Martins, 2010. "Capital Inflows Hinder Competitiveness? The Real Exchange Rate in Ethiopia," Discussion Papers 10/07, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Futures Markets; Efficiency; Forecast Errors; GARCH; JEL: G14; C58; Q14;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:abk:jajeba:ajebasp.2019.19.34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jeffery Daniels (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://thescipub.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.