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Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Graciela Kaminsky

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Manmohan S. Kumar

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

An econometric investigation is undertaken into the efficiency of commodity futures markets. Despite considerable empirical literature, there is no consensus on whether or not the markets are efficient. This study suggests that for certain commodities expected excess returns to futures speculation are nonzero. However, these results do not necessarily imply that agents do not act rationally. The implications for the cost of using the futures market for hedging and for the power of futures prices to forecast future spot prices are also noted.

Suggested Citation

  • Graciela Kaminsky & Manmohan S. Kumar, 1990. "Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 670-699, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:37:y:1990:i:3:p:670-699
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Shaun K. Roache, 2008. "Commodities and the Market Price of Risk," IMF Working Papers 2008/221, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Thomas Kremser & Margarethe Rammerstorfer, 2017. "Predictive Performance and Bias: Evidence from Natural Gas Markets," Journal of Management and Sustainability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 7(2), pages 1-26, June.
    3. Drummond, Paulo, 1997. "Infrequent large nominal devaluations and their impact on the futures prices for freingn exchange in Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 51(2), April.
    4. Nordier, Jean-Pierre, 2021. "Identifying possible misspecification in South African soybean oil future contracts," Research Theses 334756, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    5. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
    6. Li, Jia & Hanrahan, Kevin F. & McErlean, Seamus, 2004. "The Efficiency Of The Futures Market For Agricultural Commodities In The Uk," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20203, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
    8. Bernardina Algieri & Matthias Kalkuhl, 2019. "Efficiency and Forecast Performance of Commodity Futures Markets," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 11(1), pages 19-34, June.
    9. Williams Ohemeng & Bo Sjo & Michael Danquah, 2016. "Market Efficiency and Price Discovery in Cocoa Markets," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 209-224, May.
    10. John M. Fry & Baoying Lai & Mark Rhodes, 2011. "The interdependence of Coffee spot and futures market," Working Papers 2011.1, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    11. Joakim Westerlund & Paresh Narayan, 2013. "Testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis in Conditionally Heteroskedastic Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(11), pages 1024-1045, November.
    12. Adusei Jumah & Sohbet Karbuz & Gerhard Runstler, 1999. "Interest rate differentials, market integration, and the efficiency of commodity futures markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 101-108.
    13. Sushil Mohan & James Love, 2004. "Coffee futures: role in reducing coffee producers' price risk," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(7), pages 983-1002.

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