A Survey of 50 Years of Commodity Price Analysis, and a Look Ahead to the Next 50
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.369141
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Adjemian, Michael K. & Smith, Aaron & He, Wendi, 2021.
"Estimating the market effect of a trade war: The case of soybean tariffs,"
Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
- Adjemian, Michael K. & Smith, Aaron & He, Wendi, 2019. "Estimating the Market Effect of a Trade War: The Case of Soybean Tariffs," 2019 Annual Meeting, July 21-23, Atlanta, Georgia 292089, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Brittain, Lee & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2011.
"Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting,"
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(01), pages 1-20, April.
- Brittain, Lee & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2009. "Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting," 2009 Conference, April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri 53038, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Taylor, Stephen J., 1988. "Forecasting market prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 421-426.
- Joseph P. Janzen & Michael K. Adjemian, 2017.
"Estimating the Location of World Wheat Price Discovery,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(5), pages 1188-1207.
- Janzen, Joseph P. & Adjemian, Michael K., 2016. "Estimating the Location of World Wheat Price Discovery," 2017 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 6-8, 2017, Chicago, Illinois 250112, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Joseph P. Janzen & Nathan P. Hendricks, 2020. "Are Farmers Made Whole by Trade Aid?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 205-226, June.
- Fishe, Raymond P.H. & Smith, Aaron, 2019. "Do speculators drive commodity prices away from supply and demand fundamentals?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-1.
- Mindy L. Mallory & Dermot J. Hayes & Bruce A. Babcock, 2011.
"Crop-Based Biofuel Production with Acreage Competition and Uncertainty,"
Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 87(4), pages 610-627.
- Mallory, Mindy & Hayes, Dermot J. & Babcock, Bruce, 2011. "Crop-based Biofuel Production with Acreage Competition and Uncertainty," ISU General Staff Papers 201111010700001481, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Mallory, M. & Hayes, Dermot J. & Babcock, Bruce A., 2011. "Crop-Based Biofuel Production with Acreage Competition and Uncertainty," Staff General Research Papers Archive 32439, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Rausser, Gordon C & Carter, Colin, 1983.
"Futures Market Efficiency in the Soybean Complex,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 469-478, August.
- Rausser, Gordon C. & Carter, Colin A., 1982. "Futures market efficiency in the soybean complex," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt7d48x9qc, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
- Rausser, Gordon & Carter, Colin A., 1982. "Futures Market Efficiency in the Soybean Complex," CUDARE Working Papers 198214, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
- Liu, Tangyong & Gong, Xu, 2020. "Analyzing time-varying volatility spillovers between the crude oil markets using a new method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
- Joseph P. Janzen & Nicholas D. Paulson & Juo‐Han Tsay, 2024. "Commodity storage and the cost of capital: Evidence from Illinois grain farms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(2), pages 526-546, March.
- Jian Li & Jean‐Paul Chavas, 2023. "A dynamic analysis of the distribution of commodity futures and spot prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(1), pages 122-143, January.
- Osama Ahmed, 2018. "Vertical price transmission in the Egyptian tomato sector after the Arab Spring," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(47), pages 5094-5109, October.
- Mallory, Mindy L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2012. "How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets Energy Economics," ISU General Staff Papers 201211010700001537, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Harvey Lapan & Giancarlo Moschini, 1994.
"Futures Hedging Under Price, Basis, and Production Risk,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(3), pages 465-477.
- Lapan, Harvey E. & Moschini, GianCarlo, 1994. "Futures Hedging Under Price, Basis and Production Risk," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10041, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Mindy L. Mallory & Rundong Peng & Meilin Ma & H. Holly Wang, 2025. "High-Dimensional Spatial-Plus-Vertical Price Relationships and Price Transmission: A Machine Learning Approach," Papers 2506.13967, arXiv.org.
- Wang, Hu & Li, Shouwei, 2021. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers between crude oil and China's financial markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
- Olga Isengildina Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin, 2024. "What do we know about the value and market impact of the US Department of Agriculture reports?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(2), pages 698-736, June.
- Holbrook Working, 1948. "Theory of the Inverse Carrying Charge in Futures Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-28.
- Teterin, Pavel & Brooks, Robert & Enders, Walter, 2016. "Smooth volatility shifts and spillovers in U.S. crude oil and corn futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 22-36.
- Barry K. Goodwin, 2025. "Integration of the US cannabis market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 107(2), pages 440-464, March.
- Dalia Ghanem & Aaron Smith, 2022. "Causality in structural vector autoregressions: Science or sorcery?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(3), pages 881-904, May.
- Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2012.
"Index Investment and the Financialization of Commodities,"
Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 68(6), pages 54-74, November.
- Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mallory, Mindy L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2012.
"How market efficiency and the theory of storage link corn and ethanol markets,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2157-2166.
- Mallory, Mindy L. & Hayes, Dermot J. & Irwin, Scott H., 2010. "How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets," Hebrew University of Jerusalem Archive 97611, Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
- Mindy L. Mallory & Dermot J. Hayes & Scott H. Irwin, 2010. "How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets," Midwest Agribusiness Trade Research and Information Center (MATRIC) Publications (archive only) 10-wp517, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
- Mindy L. Mallory & Dermot J. Hayes & Scott H. Irwin, 2010. "How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications (archive only) 10-wp517, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
- Mindy L. Mallory & Dermot J. Hayes & Scott H. Irwin, 2010. "How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 10-wp517, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
- Christopher B. Barrett, 2001. "Measuring Integration and Efficiency in International Agricultural Markets," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 19-32.
- Ted C. Schroeder & Barry K. Goodwin, 1991. "Price discovery and cointegration for live hogs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 685-696, December.
- Zhepeng Hu & Mindy Mallory & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia, 2020.
"Measuring price discovery between nearby and deferred contracts in storable and nonstorable commodity futures markets,"
Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(6), pages 825-840, November.
- Zhepeng Hu & Mindy Mallory & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia, 2017. "Measuring Price Discovery between Nearby and Deferred Contracts in Storable and Non-Storable Commodity Futures Markets," Papers 1711.03506, arXiv.org.
- Kishore Joseph & Scott H. Irwin & Philip Garcia, 2016.
"Commodity Storage under Backwardation: Does the Working Curve Still Work?,"
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 38(1), pages 152-173.
- Joseph, Kishore & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2011. "Commodity Storage under Backwardation: Does the Working Curve Still Work?," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103888, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Robert J. Myers & Stanley R. Johnson & Michael Helmar & Harry Baumes, 2014. "Long-run and Short-run Co-movements in Energy Prices and the Prices of Agricultural Feedstocks for Biofuel," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(4), pages 991-1008.
- Christopher B. Barrett & Jau Rong Li, 2002. "Distinguishing between Equilibrium and Integration in Spatial Price Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 292-307.
- Du, Xiaodong & Yu, Cindy L. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2011.
"Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 497-503, May.
- Xiaodong Du & Cindy L. Yu & Dermot J. Hayes, 2009. "Speculation and Volatility Spillover in the Crude Oil and Agricultural Commodity Markets: A Bayesian Analysis," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications (archive only) 09-wp491, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
- Du, Xiaodong & Yu, Cindy L. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2011. "Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis," ISU General Staff Papers 201105010700001512, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Du, Xiaodong & Yu, Cindy L. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2009. "Speculation and Volatility Spillover in the Crude Oil and Agricultural Commodity Markets: A Bayesian Analysis," Hebrew University of Jerusalem Archive 50073, Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
- Du, Xiaodong & Yu, Cindy L. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2009. "Speculation and Volatility Spillover in the Crude Oil and Agricultural Commodity Markets: A Bayesian Analysis," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49276, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Xiaodong Du & Cindy L. Yu & Dermot J. Hayes, 2009. "Speculation and Volatility Spillover in the Crude Oil and Agricultural Commodity Markets: A Bayesian Analysis," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 09-wp491, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
- Philip Garcia & Scott H. Irwin & Aaron Smith, 2015. "Futures Market Failure?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 40-64.
- Felipe G. Avileis & Mindy L. Mallory, 2022. "The impact of Brazil on global grain dynamics: A study on cross‐market volatility spillovers," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(2), pages 231-245, March.
- A. Ford Ramsey & Michael K. Adjemian, 2024. "Forecast combination in agricultural economics: Past, present, and the future," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(4), pages 1450-1478, December.
- Mallory, Mindy & Peng, Rundong & Ma, Meilin & Wang, H. Holly, 2025. "High-Dimensional Spatial-Plus-Vertical Price Relationships and Price Transmission: A Machine Learning Approach," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 361074, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Andrew McKenzie & Matthew Holt, 2002.
"Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1519-1532.
- McKenzie, Andrew M. & Holt, Matthew T., 1998. "Market Efficiency In Agricultural Futures Markets," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20933, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- H. Holly Wang & Bingfan Ke, 2005.
"Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China,"
Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(2), pages 125-141, June.
- Wang, H. Holly & Ke, Bingfan, 2005. "Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(2), pages 1-17.
- Andres Trujillo-Barrera & Philip Garcia & Mindy L. Mallory, 2016. "Price Density Forecasts in the U.S. Hog Markets: Composite Procedures," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1529-1544.
- Cortney Cowley, 2020. "Reshuffling in Soybean Markets following Chinese Tariffs," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 0(no.1), pages 5-30, June.
- Ahmed, Osama, 2018. "Vertical price transmission in the Egyptian tomato sector after the Arab Spring," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 50(47), pages 5094-5109.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Bernardina Algieri & Matthias Kalkuhl, 2019. "Efficiency and Forecast Performance of Commodity Futures Markets," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 11(1), pages 19-34, June.
- Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2013. "Dissecting Corn Price Movements with Directed Acyclic Graphs," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151279, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Irwin, Scott H., 2014. "A Structural Approach to Disentangling Speculative and Fundamental Influences on the Price of Corn," 2014 Conference, April 21-22, 2014, St. Louis, Missouri 285810, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Hu, Zhepeng & Mallory, Mindy & Serra, Teresa, 2017. "Measuring Price Discovery between Nearby and Deferred Contracts in Storable and Non-Storable Commodity Futures Markets," 2017 Conference, April 24-25, 2017, St. Louis, Missouri 285866, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Zhepeng Hu & Mindy Mallory & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia, 2020.
"Measuring price discovery between nearby and deferred contracts in storable and nonstorable commodity futures markets,"
Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(6), pages 825-840, November.
- Zhepeng Hu & Mindy Mallory & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia, 2017. "Measuring Price Discovery between Nearby and Deferred Contracts in Storable and Non-Storable Commodity Futures Markets," Papers 1711.03506, arXiv.org.
- Algieri, Bernardina & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2014. "Back to the Futures: An Assessment of Commodity Market Efficiency and Forecast Error Drivers," Discussion Papers 187159, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
- Yip, Pick Schen & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2020.
"Dynamic volatility spillover effects between oil and agricultural products,"
International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
- Pick Schen Yip & Robert Brooks & Hung Xuan Do & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2019. "Dynamic Volatility Spillover Effect between Oil and Agricultural Products," Working Papers 2019-009, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
- Dalheimer, Bernhard & Herwartz, Helmut & Lange, Alexander, 2021. "The threat of oil market turmoils to food price stability in Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
- You‐How Go & Wee‐Yeap Lau, 2023. "What do we know about informational efficiency? Three puzzles and the new direction forward," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1489-1525, September.
- Skold, Karl Durwood, 1989. "The integration of alternative information systems: an application to the Hogs and Pigs report," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010239, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Mazouz, Khelifa & Wang, Jian, 2014. "Are commodity futures markets short-term efficient? An empirical investigation," 88th Annual Conference, April 9-11, 2014, AgroParisTech, Paris, France 169763, Agricultural Economics Society.
- Zhige Wu & Alex Maynard & Alfons Weersink & Getu Hailu, 2018. "Asymmetric spot‐futures price adjustments in grain markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(12), pages 1549-1564, December.
- Yao, Wei, 2025. "The US Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy and Commodities’ Prices," Other publications TiSEM 185d14d3-9dc2-4276-82ec-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Zhepeng Hu & B. Wade Brorsen, 2017. "Spatial Price Transmission and Efficiency in the Urea Market," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 98-115, January.
- Etienne, Xiaoli, 2015.
"Financialization of Agricultural Commodity Markets: Do Financial Data Help to Forecast Agricultural Prices,"
2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy
211626, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2015. "Financialization of Agricultural Commodity Markets: Do Financial Data Help to Forecast Agricultural Prices?," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205124, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Karel Janda & Ladislav Kristoufek, 2019. "The Relationship Between Fuel and Food Prices: Methods, Outcomes, and Lessons for Commodity Price Risk Management," CAMA Working Papers 2019-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Wielechowski, Michał & Czech, Katarzyna, 2025. "U.S. Presidential Elections And Agricultural Market Volatility. Is There A “Trump Effect” On Grain Commodities?," Roczniki (Annals), Polish Association of Agricultural Economists and Agribusiness - Stowarzyszenie Ekonomistow Rolnictwa e Agrobiznesu (SERiA), vol. 2025(1).
- Xiaokang Hou & Shah Fahad & Peipei Zhao & Beibei Yan & Tianjun Liu, 2022. "The Trilogy of the Chinese Apple Futures Market: Price Discovery, Risk-Hedging and Cointegration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-16, October.
- Peersman, Gert & Rüth, Sebastian K. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2021.
"The interplay between oil and food commodity prices: Has it changed over time?,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
- Peersman, Gert & Rüth, Sebastian K. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2019. "The interplay between oil and food commodity prices: Has It changed over time?," Working Papers 0665, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
- Gert Peersman & Sebastian K. R th & Wouter Van der Veken, 2019. "The Interplay between Oil and Food Commodity Prices: Has It Changed over Time?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 19/978, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Gert Peersman & Sebastian K. Rüth & Wouter Van der Veken, 2019. "The Interplay between Oil and Food Commodity Prices: Has It Changed over Time?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7826, CESifo.
- Sergio Adriani David & Claudio M. C. Inácio & José A. Tenreiro Machado, 2019. "Ethanol Prices and Agricultural Commodities: An Investigation of Their Relationship," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-25, August.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:369141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/waeaaea.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.
Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/jlaare/369141.html