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Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting

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  • Brittain, Lee
  • Garcia, Philip
  • Irwin, Scott H.

Abstract

This paper examines returns from holding 30- and 90-day call and put positions, and the forecasting performance of implied volatility in the live and feeder cattle options markets. Implied volatility is an upwardly biased and inefficient predictor of realized volatility, with bias most pronounced in live cattle. While significant returns exist from several positions, strategies are strongly affected by drifts in futures prices. However, returns from live cattle puts are persistent, and evidence from 30-day straddle returns indicates the live cattle market overprices volatility. Overpricing is consistent with volatility risk, the effect of which is magnified by extreme market conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Brittain, Lee & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2011. "Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(01), pages 1-20, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:105515
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.105515
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    Cited by:

    1. Mallory, Mindy L., 2025. "A Survey of 50 Years of Commodity Price Analysis, and a Look Ahead to the Next 50," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 50(4), December.
    2. Andres Trujillo-Barrera & Philip Garcia & Mindy L Mallory, 2018. "Short-term price density forecasts in the lean hog futures market," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 45(1), pages 121-142.
    3. Miao Zhen & James Rude & Feng Qiu, 2018. "Price Volatility Spillovers in the Western Canadian Feed Barley, U.S. Corn, and Alberta Cattle Markets," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 66(2), pages 209-229, June.
    4. Bozic, Marin & Newton, John & Thraen, Cameron S. & Gould, Brian W., 2012. "Parametric Bootstrap Tests for Futures Price and Implied Volatility Biases with Application to Rating Livestock Margin Insurance for Dairy Cattle," Staff Papers 135077, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    5. Adrian Fernandez‐Perez & Bart Frijns & Ilnara Gafiatullina & Alireza Tourani‐Rad, 2019. "Properties and the predictive power of implied volatility in the New Zealand dairy market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 612-631, May.

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