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Impact of WASDE reports on implied volatility in corn and soybean markets

Author

Listed:
  • Olga Isengildina-Massa

    (Department of Applied Economics and Statistics, Clemson University, 295 Barre Hall, Box 340313, Clemson, SC 29634)

  • Scott H. Irwin

    (Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL 61801)

  • Darrel L. Good

    (Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL 61801)

  • Jennifer K. Gomez

    (Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL 61801)

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of U.S. Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) reports on implied volatility in corn and soybean markets over 1985 to 2002. If WASDE reports resolve uncertainty, implied volatility should drop immediately after release of the reports. Results show that WASDE reports lead to a statistically significant reduction of implied volatility that averages 0.7 percentage points for corn and 0.8 percentage points for soybeans. The magnitude of the reduction is largest for the group of WASDE reports containing both domestic and international situation and outlook information. This group of reports reduces implied volatility by an average of 1.1 percentage points in corn and by almost 1.5 percentage points in soybeans. Results also reveal that the market impact of WASDE reports is strongest in the most recent 1996 to 2002 subperiod. Overall, the results indicate that WASDE reports provide valuable information to corn and soybean market participants. [JEL classifications: Q100, Q110, Q130]. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Suggested Citation

  • Olga Isengildina-Massa & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good & Jennifer K. Gomez, 2008. "Impact of WASDE reports on implied volatility in corn and soybean markets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 473-490.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:24:y:2008:i:4:p:473-490
    DOI: 10.1002/agr.20174
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    3. Tianyang Zhang & Ziran Li, 2022. "Can a rational expectation storage model explain the USDA ending grain stocks forecast errors?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 313-337, March.
    4. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Cao, Xiang & Karali, Berna & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael & Johansson, Robert C., 2021. "When does USDA information have the most impact on crop and livestock markets?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    5. Arnade, Carlos Anthony & Hoffman, Linwood A., 2020. "The Impact of Public Information on Commodity Market Performance : The Response of Corn Futures to USDA Corn Production Forecasts," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304181, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Adjemian, Michael K. & Bruno, Valentina & Robe, Michel A. & Wallen, Jonathan, 2017. "What Drives Volatility Expectations in Grain and Oilseed Markets?," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258452, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Covindassamy, Genevre & Robe, Michel A. & Wallen, Jonathan, 2016. "Sugar With Your Coffee?: Financials, Fundamentals, and Soft Price Uncertainty," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8588, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Marin Bozic, 2010. "Pricing Options on Commodity Futures: The Role of Weather and Storage," Working Papers 1003, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb.
    9. Lihong Lu McPhail & Bruce A. Babcock, 2008. "Short-Run Price and Welfare Impacts of Federal Ethanol Policies," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 08-wp468, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    10. Adrian Fernandez‐Perez & Raquel López, 2023. "The effect of macroeconomic news announcements on the implied volatility of commodities: The role of survey releases," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1499-1530, November.
    11. López, Raquel, 2018. "The behaviour of energy-related volatility indices around scheduled news announcements: Implications for variance swap investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 356-364.
    12. Raghav Goyal & Michael K. Adjemian, 2023. "Information rigidities in USDA crop production forecasts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(5), pages 1405-1425, October.
    13. Xiao, Jinzhi, 2015. "Essays on the forecasts of ending stocks," ISU General Staff Papers 201501010800005902, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Shon Ferguson & David Ubilava, 2022. "Global commodity market disruption and the fallout," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(4), pages 737-752, October.
    15. Roberto Andreotti Bodra & Afonso De Campos Pint, 2014. "Modelo De Volatilidade Estocástica Com Saltos Aplicado A Commodities Agrícolas," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 142, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    16. An N. Q. Cao & Michel A. Robe, 2022. "Market uncertainty and sentiment around USDA announcements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 250-275, February.
    17. Bozic, Marin & Fortenbery, T. Randall, 2011. "Pricing Options on Commodity Futures: The Role of Weather and Storage," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103638, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Nathan Kauffman, 2013. "Have extended trading hours made agricultural commodity markets riskier?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 67-94.
    19. Lusk, Jayson L., 2016. "From Farm Income to Food Consumption: Valuing USDA Data Products," C-FARE Reports 266593, Council on Food, Agricultural, and Resource Economics (C-FARE).
    20. Goyal, Raghav & Adjemian, Michael K., 2022. "Information Rigidities in USDA Forecasts," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322339, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    21. Cao, An N.Q. & Ionici, Octavian & Robe, Michel A., 2022. "USDA Announcements and the Stock Prices of Food-Sector Companies," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322062, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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