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Usda And Private Analysts' Forecasts Of Ending Stocks: How Good Are They?

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  • Xiao, Jinzhi
  • Lence, Sergio H.
  • Hart, Chad

Abstract

Forecasts of U.S. ending stocks for corn, soybean, and wheat issued by the USDA and private analysts are evaluated. The null hypothesis that USDA forecasts are unbiased cannot be rejected. The null hypothesis that private analysts' forecasts are unbiased forecasts of USDA forecasts cannot be rejected either. However, there is strong evidence that the forecasts issued by the USDA and private analysts are inefficient. Overall, the precision of the USDA forecasts and the private analysts' forecasts is highest for wheat and lowest for soybean.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao, Jinzhi & Lence, Sergio H. & Hart, Chad, 2014. "Usda And Private Analysts' Forecasts Of Ending Stocks: How Good Are They?," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170642, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea14:170642
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.170642
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiao, Jinzhi & Lence, Sergio H. & Hart, Chad E., 2015. "Do analysts forecast the ending stocks or the USDA forecasts?," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205759, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. MacDonald, Stephen & Ash, Mark & Cooke, Bryce, 2017. "The Evolution of Inefficiency in USDA’s Forecasts of U.S. and World Soybean Markets," MPRA Paper 87545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bahram Sanginabadi, 2018. "USDA Forecasts: A meta-analysis study," Papers 1801.06575, arXiv.org.
    4. Goyal, Raghav & Adjemian, Michael K., 2021. "The 2019 government shutdown increased uncertainty in major agricultural commodity markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H Irwin, 2017. "Do Markets Correct for Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts? Evidence from Private Analysts and Futures Prices," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 559-583.

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    Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis;

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