IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/ncrfou/19021.html

Options-Based Forecasts Of Futures Prices In The Presence Of Limit Moves

Author

Listed:
  • Egelkraut, Thorsten M.
  • Garcia, Philip

Abstract

This analysis examines a simultaneous estimation option-based approach to forecast futures prices in the presence of daily price limit moves. The procedure explicitly allows for changing implied volatilities by estimating the implied futures price and the implied volatility simultaneously. Using 15 years of futures and futures options data for three agricultural commodities, we find that the simultaneous estimation approach accounts for the abrupt changes in implied volatility associated with limit moves and generates more accurate price forecasts than conventional methods that rely on only one implied variable.

Suggested Citation

  • Egelkraut, Thorsten M. & Garcia, Philip, 2004. "Options-Based Forecasts Of Futures Prices In The Presence Of Limit Moves," 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri 19021, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ncrfou:19021
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/19021/files/cp04eg01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.19021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good & Jennifer K. Gomez, 2008. "Impact of WASDE reports on implied volatility in corn and soybean markets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 473-490.
    3. Chuang Yuang Lin & Dar Hsin Chen & Chin Yu Tsai, 2011. "The limitation of monotonicity property of option prices: an empirical evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(23), pages 3103-3113.
    4. Frank, Julieta & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2008. "To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 73-87, April.
    5. Xinyue He & Teresa Serra, 2022. "Are price limits cooling off agricultural futures markets?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(5), pages 1724-1746, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ncrfou:19021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dauiuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.