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To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?

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  • Frank, Julieta
  • Garcia, Philip
  • Irwin, Scott H.

Abstract

We reassess the effect of new information in the Hogs and Pigs Reports (HPR) focusing on announcements’ rationality and alternative surprises. HPR announcements are irrational estimates of final estimates, and market expectations are irrational estimates of HPR numbers. Using the market’s best forecast and incorporating final estimates, we modify conventional information measures. Despite differences as large as 33 cents/cwt in price response, findings suggest there is little to differentiate among surprise measures. Regardless, the message that HPR provides new information to the market is strongly supported. On balance, marketing (breeding) information has a larger effect on short-term (long-term) price changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank, Julieta & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2008. "To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-15, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:45046
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.45046
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    Cited by:

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    2. Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin & Olga Isengildina‐Massa, 2020. "Supply Fundamentals and Grain Futures Price Movements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 548-568, March.
    3. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H Irwin, 2017. "Do Markets Correct for Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts? Evidence from Private Analysts and Futures Prices," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 559-583.
    4. R. Karina Gallardo & B. Wade Brorsen & Jayson Lusk, 2010. "Prediction markets: an experimental approach to forecasting cattle on feed," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 70(3), pages 414-426, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance;

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness

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