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Are Cattle On Feed Report Revisions Random And Does Industry Anticipate Them?

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  • Mills, Jeffrey B.
  • Schroeder, Ted C.

Abstract

Cattle on Feed (COF) reports are an important source of beef supply information. This study investigates whether COF report revisions are unbiased, random, and anticipated. Initial COF reports are biased, but the bias is economically small. Revisions to COF estimates are not random. Market analysts do not correctly anticipate revisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mills, Jeffrey B. & Schroeder, Ted C., 2002. "Are Cattle On Feed Report Revisions Random And Does Industry Anticipate Them?," 2002 Annual Meeting, July 28-31, 2002, Long Beach, California 36643, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:waealb:36643
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.36643
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Schaefer, Matthew P. & Myers, Robert J., 1999. "Forecasting Accuracy, Rational Expectations And Market Efficiency In The Us Beef Cattle Industry," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21487, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Colin A. Carter & Carl A. Galopin, 1993. "Informational Content of Government Hogs and Pigs Reports," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(3), pages 711-718.
    3. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2002. "Usda Production Forecasts For Pork, Beef, And Broilers: An Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(1), pages 1-14, July.
    4. Bailey, DeeVon & Brorsen, B. Wade, 1998. "Trends In The Accuracy Of Usda Production Forecasts For Beef And Pork," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Orlen Grunewald & Mark S. McNulty & Arlo W. Biere, 1993. "Live Cattle Futures Response to Cattle on Feed Reports," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(1), pages 131-137.
    6. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2001. "USDA Production Forecasts for Pork, Beef, and Broilers: A Further Evaluation," 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri 18960, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    7. Phil L. Colling & Scott H. Irwin, 1990. "The Reaction of Live Hog Futures Prices to USDA Hogs and Pigs Reports," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(1), pages 84-94.
    8. Meyer, Steve R. & Lawrence, John D., 1988. "Comparing USDA Hogs and Pigs Reports to Subsequent Slaughter: Does Systematic Error Exist?," Working Papers 256649, University of Missouri Columbia, Department of Agricultural Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2004. "Does The Market Anticipate Smoothing In Usda Crop Production Forecasts?," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20145, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Frank, Julieta & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2008. "To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 73-87, April.
    3. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H Irwin, 2017. "Do Markets Correct for Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts? Evidence from Private Analysts and Futures Prices," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 559-583.

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