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Do Big Crops Get Bigger and Small Crops Get Smaller? Further Evidence on Smoothing in U.S. Department of Agriculture Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Isengildina, Olga
  • Irwin, Scott H.
  • Good, Darrel L.

Abstract

This study sought to determine whether monthly revisions of U.S. Department of Agriculture current-year corn and soybean yield forecasts are correlated and whether this correlation is associated with crop size. An ex-ante measure of crop size based on percent deviation of the current estimate from out-of-sample trend is used in efficiency tests based on the Nordhaus framework for fixed-event forecasts. Results show that available information about crop size is generally efficiently incorporated in these forecasts. Thus, although this pattern may appear obvious to market analysts in hindsight, it is largely based on new information and hence difficult to anticipate.

Suggested Citation

  • Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2013. "Do Big Crops Get Bigger and Small Crops Get Smaller? Further Evidence on Smoothing in U.S. Department of Agriculture Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 95-107, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:45:y:2013:i:01:p:95-107_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. MacDonald, Stephen & Ash, Mark & Cooke, Bryce, 2017. "The Evolution of Inefficiency in USDA’s Forecasts of U.S. and World Soybean Markets," MPRA Paper 87545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Goyal, Raghav & Adjemian, Michael K., 2022. "Information Rigidities in USDA Forecasts," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322339, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Newton, John & Irwin, Scott & Good, Darrel, . "Do Big Soybean Crops Always Get Bigger?," farmdoc daily, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, vol. 4, pages 1-7.
    4. Bahram Sanginabadi, 2018. "USDA Forecasts: A meta-analysis study," Papers 1801.06575, arXiv.org.
    5. Olga Isengildina‐Massa & Berna Karali & Todd H. Kuethe & Ani L. Katchova, 2021. "Joint Evaluation of the System of USDA's Farm Income Forecasts," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 1140-1160, September.
    6. Fiechter, Chad M. & Kuethe, Todd H. & Zhang, Wendong, 2022. "Information Rigidities in Farmland Value Expectations," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322070, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Raghav Goyal & Michael K. Adjemian, 2023. "Information rigidities in USDA crop production forecasts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(5), pages 1405-1425, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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