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Informational Content of Government Hogs and Pigs Reports

Author

Listed:
  • Colin A. Carter
  • Carl A. Galopin

Abstract

We examine the value of the informational content of quarterly government reports which estimate forthcoming supplies of hogs and pigs. It is assumed that a hypothetical futures trader obtains the government reports one day in advance of their release. A futures market trading rule is established which uses early access to the reports together with a priori expectations of the reports' contents. We find the market information in the government reports is of little or no value to a futures trader in advance of the release date because this information is already incorporated in the futures price.

Suggested Citation

  • Colin A. Carter & Carl A. Galopin, 1993. "Informational Content of Government Hogs and Pigs Reports," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(3), pages 711-718.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:75:y:1993:i:3:p:711-718.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1243577
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Phil L. Colling & Scott H. Irwin & Carl R. Zulauf, 1997. "Future price responses to USDA's Cold Storage report," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 393-400.
    2. Smith, Vincent H., 1998. "Measuring the benefits of social science research," Impact assessments 2, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Jeffrey B. Mills & Ted C. Schroeder, 2004. "Are cattle on feed report revisions random and does industry anticipate them?," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 363-374.
    4. Klomp, Jeroen, 2020. "The impact of Russian sanctions on the return of agricultural commodity futures in the EU," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    5. Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Leuthold, Raymond M. & Yang, Li, 1997. "The value of public information in commodity futures markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 559-570, April.
    6. Ying, Jiahui & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2017. "A Temporal Impact Assessment Method for the Informational Content of USDA Reports in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258201, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Elfakhani, Said & Wionzek, Ritchie J., 1997. "Intermarket spread opportunities between Canadian and American agricultural futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 361-377.
    8. Joshua Huang & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia, 2021. "The Value of USDA Announcements in the Electronically Traded Corn Futures Market: A Modified Sufficient Test with Risk Adjustments," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 712-734, September.
    9. Dwight R. Sanders & Mark R. Manfredo, 2008. "Multiple horizons and information in USDA production forecasts," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 55-66.
    10. Holloway, Garth J. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Han, Frank M., 1997. "Does Market Power Matter?," Working Papers 225884, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    11. Carter, Colin A., 1999. "Commodity futures markets: a survey," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 43(2), pages 1-39, June.
    12. Diersen, Matthew A., 2001. "South Dakota's Hog Market: Developments and Prospects," Economics Staff Papers 32021, South Dakota State University, Department of Economics.

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