IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting Accuracy, Rational Expectations And Market Efficiency In The Us Beef Cattle Industry


  • Schaefer, Matthew P.
  • Myers, Robert J.


Recent studies have tested whether futures prices respond to U.S. Department of Agriculture inventory reports in accordance with the efficient markets hypothesis. These studies use survey forecasts to identify the anticipated and unanticipated information contained in a report. However, this approach implicitly assumes that survey forecasts be an unbiased and efficient predictor of the data in the USDA report. Furthermore, previous studies have not tested the bias and efficiency properties of USDA preliminary estimates as predictors of final revised USDA figures. This study introduces a framework for conducting tests of the efficient markets hypothesis in the presence of biased and inefficient survey forecasts, and preliminary USDA estimates that are biased and inefficient predictors of final revised figures. The approach is applied to the US beef cattle industry and results are quite different from those obtained using conventional analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Schaefer, Matthew P. & Myers, Robert J., 1999. "Forecasting Accuracy, Rational Expectations And Market Efficiency In The Us Beef Cattle Industry," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21487, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea99:21487

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Cooley, Thomas F & DeCanio, Stephen J, 1977. "Rational Expectations in American Agriculture, 1867-1914," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(1), pages 9-17, February.
    2. Tilman Ehrbeck & Robert Waldmann, 1996. "Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(1), pages 21-40.
    3. Abel, Andrew B. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1983. "An integrated view of tests of rationality, market efficiency and the short-run neutrality of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-24.
    4. Bonham, Carl S & Dacy, Douglas C, 1991. "In Search of a "Strictly Rational" Forecast," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 245-253, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Bahram Sanginabadi, 2018. "USDA Forecasts: A meta-analysis study," Papers 1801.06575,
    2. Jeffrey B. Mills & Ted C. Schroeder, 2004. "Are cattle on feed report revisions random and does industry anticipate them?," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 363-374.


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea99:21487. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.