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An Evaluation of the USDA Sugar Production and Consumption Forecasts

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  • Lewis, Karen E.
  • Manfredo, Mark R.

Abstract

The performance of the USDA domestic sugar production and consumption forecasts for marketing years 1993/1994 through 2009/2011 was evaluated. Using USDA sugar forecast information, U.S. sugar policy attempts to operate at no cost to the government by maintaining sugar prices above the government loan-rate. Results suggest no evidence that U.S. sugar policy is negatively impacted by the USDA sugar production and consumption forecasts. Also, new policies formed under the 2008 Farm Bill are not impaired by USDA sugar production and consumption forecasts. Overall, the results suggest that the USDA has done an outstanding job of forecasting domestic sugar production and consumption over the sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Lewis, Karen E. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2012. "An Evaluation of the USDA Sugar Production and Consumption Forecasts," 2012 Conference, April 16-17, 2012, St. Louis, Missouri 285777, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:n13412:285777
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285777
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/285777/files/confp02-12.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Egelkraut, Thorsten M. & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2003. "An Evaluation of Crop Forecast Accuracy for Corn and Soybeans: USDA and Private Information Agencies," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(01), pages 1-17, April.
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    6. Jeffrey B. Mills & Ted C. Schroeder, 2004. "Are cattle on feed report revisions random and does industry anticipate them?," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 363-374.
    7. Olga Isengildina & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good, 2006. "Are Revisions to USDA Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(4), pages 1091-1104.
    8. Nordhaus, William D, 1987. "Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 667-674, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. MacDonald, Stephen & Ash, Mark & Cooke, Bryce, 2017. "The Evolution of Inefficiency in USDA’s Forecasts of U.S. and World Soybean Markets," MPRA Paper 87545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Schmitz, Troy G. & Lewis, Karen E., 2015. "Impact of NAFTA on U.S. and Mexican Sugar Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 1-18, September.
    3. Siddhartha S. Bora & Ani L. Katchova & Todd H. Kuethe, 2021. "The Rationality of USDA Forecasts under Multivariate Asymmetric Loss," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 1006-1033, May.
    4. DeLong, Karen L. & Trejo-Pech, Carlos O. & Johansson, Robert, 2024. "An Evaluation of how Forecasting Efficiency Leads to Reduced Firm Risks," 2024 Conference, April 22-23, 2024, St. Louis, Missouri 379005, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    5. Kexin Ding & Ani L. Katchova, 2024. "Testing the optimality of USDA's WASDE forecasts under unknown loss," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 846-865, October.

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