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An Evaluation of the USDA Sugar Production and Consumption Forecasts

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  • Lewis, Karen E.
  • Manfredo, Mark R.

Abstract

The performance of the USDA domestic sugar production and consumption forecasts for marketing years 1993/1994 through 2009/2011 was evaluated. Using USDA sugar forecast information, U.S. sugar policy attempts to operate at no cost to the government by maintaining sugar prices above the government loan-rate. Results suggest no evidence that U.S. sugar policy is negatively impacted by the USDA sugar production and consumption forecasts. Also, new policies formed under the 2008 Farm Bill are not impaired by USDA sugar production and consumption forecasts. Overall, the results suggest that the USDA has done an outstanding job of forecasting domestic sugar production and consumption over the sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Lewis, Karen E. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2012. "An Evaluation of the USDA Sugar Production and Consumption Forecasts," 2012 Conference, April 16-17, 2012, St. Louis, Missouri 285777, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:n13412:285777
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285777
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