Do Big Crops Get Bigger and Small Crops Get Smaller? Further Evidence on Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts
The purpose of this paper is to determine whether smoothing in USDA corn and soybean production forecasts is concentrated in years with relatively small and large crops. The sample consists of all USDA corn and soybean production forecasts released over the 1970 through 2006 crop years. Results show that USDA crop production forecasts in both corn and soybeans have a marked tendency to decrease in small crop years and increase in big crop years. The magnitude of smoothing is surprisingly large, with corn and soybean production forecasts cumulatively revised downward by about 6 to 7 percent in small crop years and upward by about 5 to 6 percent in large crop years. Crop condition ratings are useful in predicting whether the current year is likely to be a small, normal, or big crop year. Hence, there appears to be an opportunity for the USDA to incorporate additional information into the forecasting process to reduce or eliminate the smoothing inherent in different types of crop years.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 326 Mumford Hall, MC-710, 1301 West Gregory Drive, Urbana, Illinois, 61801|
Phone: (217) 333-1810
Fax: (217) 333-5538
Web page: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zanini, Fabio C. & Sherrick, Bruce J. & Schnitkey, Gary D. & Irwin, Scott H., 2001.
"Crop Insurance Valuation Under Alternative Yield Distributions,"
2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri
18953, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Bruce J. Sherrick & Fabio C. Zanini & Gary D. Schnitkey & Scott H. Irwin, 2004. "Crop Insurance Valuation under Alternative Yield Distributions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(2), pages 406-419.
- Olga Isengildina & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good, 2006.
"Are Revisions to USDA Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(4), pages 1091-1104.
- Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2004. "Are Revisions To Usda Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?," 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri 19027, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:nccsci:37563. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.