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Evaluation of Selected USDA WAOB and NASS Forecasts and Estimates in Corn and Soybeans

Author

Listed:
  • Irwin, Scott H.
  • Sanders, Dwight R.
  • Good, Darrel L.

Abstract

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has a number of agencies that are involved in collecting, analyzing, forecasting, and disseminating information about the production and consumption of the corn and soybean crops (Spilka, 1983; Vogel and Bange, 1999; Lusk, 2013). Market participants rely heavily on estimates and forecasts provided by these agencies in order to form price expectations and to make business decisions. In spite of on-going efforts to maintain the quality of information provided and the transparency of the methodology used, misunderstanding, concerns, or complaints about the information provided periodically arise (e.g., USDA/ESRP, 1985; Good and Irwin, 2011). More recently (since 2006) those concerns have centered on the accuracy of the quarterly estimates of corn inventories and to a lesser extent on the methodology and accuracy of early season yield forecasts (e.g., Polansek, 2010; Pleven and McGinty, 2011). It is in that context that this review of USDA forecasts and estimates for corn and soybeans was conducted.

Suggested Citation

  • Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R. & Good, Darrel L., 2014. "Evaluation of Selected USDA WAOB and NASS Forecasts and Estimates in Corn and Soybeans," Marketing and Outlook Research Reports 183477, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uiucmr:183477
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.183477
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David J. Smyth, 1973. "Effect of Public Price Forecasts on Market Price Variation: A Stochastic Cobweb Example," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 55(1), pages 83-88.
    2. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H., 2011. "USDA Corn and Soybean Acreage Estimates and Yield Forecasts: Dispelling Myths and Misunderstandings," Marketing and Outlook Briefs 183528, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    3. Tannura, Michael A. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2008. "Weather, Technology, and Corn and Soybean Yields in the U.S. Corn Belt," Marketing and Outlook Research Reports 37501, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    4. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Gomez, Jennifer K., 2008. "The Impact of Situation and Outlook Information in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets: Evidence from WASDE Reports," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 89-103, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bahram Sanginabadi, 2018. "USDA Forecasts: A meta-analysis study," Papers 1801.06575, arXiv.org.
    2. Xu, Chang & Katchova, Ani L., 2019. "Predicting Soybean Yield with NDVI Using a Flexible Fourier Transform Model," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 402-416, August.
    3. Karali, Berna & Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael K. & Johansson, Robert, 2019. "Are USDA reports still news to changing crop markets?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 66-76.
    4. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H Irwin, 2017. "Do Markets Correct for Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts? Evidence from Private Analysts and Futures Prices," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 559-583.
    5. MacDonald, Stephen & Ash, Mark & Cooke, Bryce, 2017. "The Evolution of Inefficiency in USDA’s Forecasts of U.S. and World Soybean Markets," MPRA Paper 87545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Irwin, Scott & Good, Darrel & Sanders, Dwight, 2015. "Understanding and Evaluating WAOB/USDA Corn Yield Forecasts," farmdoc daily, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, vol. 5, April.
    7. Good, Darrel & Irwin, Scott, 2015. "Progression of USDA Corn and Soybean Acreage Estimates and Prospects for Final Estimates for 2015," farmdoc daily, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, vol. 5, October.

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