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The Value of Information for Crop Forecasting with Bayesian Speculators: Theory and Empirical Results


  • David F. Bradford
  • Harry H. Kelejian


This paper develops a model of the way in which information about current conditions is translated by Bayesian speculative inventory holders into forecasts of the flow of harvests, and in turn, into forecasts of prices in a competitive market system. Improvement in the information system (e.g., more accurate observations) affects the commodity price distribution, and this change can be evaluated using Marshallian surplus from consumption. The model is applied empirically to the case of wheat crop forecasting in the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • David F. Bradford & Harry H. Kelejian, 1978. "The Value of Information for Crop Forecasting with Bayesian Speculators: Theory and Empirical Results," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 9(1), pages 123-144, Spring.
  • Handle: RePEc:rje:bellje:v:9:y:1978:i:spring:p:123-144

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    Cited by:

    1. Norton, George W., 1987. "Evaluating Social Science Research in Agriculture," Evaluating Agricultural Research and Productivity, Proceedings of a Workshop, Atlanta, Georgia, January 29-30, 1987, Miscellaneous Publication 52 50028, University of Minnesota, Agricultural Experiment Station.
    2. Skold, Karl Durwood, 1989. "The integration of alternative information systems: an application to the Hogs and Pigs report," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010239, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Karali, Berna & Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael K. & Johansson, Robert, 2019. "Are USDA reports still news to changing crop markets?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 66-76.
    4. Ates, Aaron M. & Lusk, Jayson L. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2019. "Forecasting Meat Prices Using Consumer Expectations from the Food Demand Survey (FooDS)," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 50(1), March.
    5. Rafsnider, Giles T. & Skold, Melvin D. & Driscoll, Richard S., 1983. "Increases In Costs And Returns Due To Intensifying Range Forage Production Surveys: An Information Economic Analysis," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, July.
    6. Lusk, Jayson L., 2016. "From Farm Income to Food Consumption: Valuing USDA Data Products," C-FARE Reports 266593, Council on Food, Agricultural, and Resource Economics (C-FARE).
    7. Pruitt, J. Ross & Tonsor, Glynn T. & Brooks, Kathleen R., 2014. "Eliciting Expert Opinion on Components of USDA Market Livestock Information," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169389, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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