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Does The Market Anticipate Smoothing In Usda Crop Production Forecasts?

  • Isengildina, Olga
  • Irwin, Scott H.
  • Good, Darrel L.

This study examines whether market participants anticipate the predictable component in USDA revisions of corn and soybean production forecasts during 1970/71 through 2003/04 marketing years. The analysis revealed that markets consistently under-predicted October corn production revisions and over-predicted September soybean production revisions. These biases may be attributable to inefficient use of information about smoothing in USDA revisions. In all other cases market analysts seemed to be aware of USDA smoothing practices and generally efficiently incorporated this information into their own forecasts.

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Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO with number 20145.

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Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea04:20145
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  1. Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Leuthold, Raymond M. & Yang, Li, 1997. "The value of public information in commodity futures markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 559-570, April.
  2. Egelkraut, Thorsten M. & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2003. "An Evaluation of Crop Forecast Accuracy for Corn and Soybeans: USDA and Private Information Agencies," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(01), April.
  3. Mills, Jeffrey B. & Schroeder, Ted C., 2002. "Are Cattle On Feed Report Revisions Random And Does Industry Anticipate Them?," 2002 Annual Meeting, July 28-31, 2002, Long Beach, California 36643, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
  4. Clements, M.C., 1996. "Evaluating the Rationality of Fixed-Event Forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 457, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  5. Olga Isengildina & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good, 2006. "Are Revisions to USDA Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(4), pages 1091-1104.
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