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Evaluating the Rationality of Fixed-Event Forecasts

Author

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  • Clements, M.C.

Abstract

A Test of forecasts rationality based on the weak efficiency of fixed-event forecasts has recently been proposed by Nordhauss (1987). This paper considers the scope for pooling fixed-event forecasts across 'events' to deliver more powerful tests of the weak-efficiency hypothesis. In an empirial illustration we demonstrate the usefulness of this approach when only a small number of forecasts are available.

Suggested Citation

  • Clements, M.C., 1996. "Evaluating the Rationality of Fixed-Event Forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 457, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:457
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    File URL: https://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/1995-1998/twerp457.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "The Wage Curve," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026202375x, January.
    2. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    3. Kevin Denny & Machin, S, 1991. "The role of profitability and industrial wages in firm level wage determination," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 34-45, May.
    4. Currie, Janet & McConnell, Sheena, 1992. "Firm-Specific Determinants of the Real Wage," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(2), pages 297-304, May.
    5. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", pages 112-134.
    6. Arulampalam, W. & Robin A. Naylor & Jeremy P. Smith, 2002. "University of Warwick," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 9, Royal Economic Society.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Chia-Lin & de Bruijn, Bert & Franses, Philip Hans & McAleer, Michael, 2013. "Analyzing fixed-event forecast revisions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 622-627.
    2. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    3. Patton, Andrew J & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007. "Learning in Real Time: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the Term Structure of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 6526, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Andrew J. Patton & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "The Resolution of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Survey Forecast," CREATES Research Papers 2008-54, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2004. "Does The Market Anticipate Smoothing In Usda Crop Production Forecasts?," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20145, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FORECASTS; POOLING; TESTS;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

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