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Going with your gut: the (in)accuracy of forecast revisions in a football score prediction game

Author

Listed:
  • Carl Singleton

    (Department of Economics, University of Reading)

  • J. James Reade

    (Department of Economics, University of Reading)

  • Alasdair Brown

    (School of Economics, University of East Anglia)

Abstract

This paper studies 150 individuals who each chose to forecast the outcome of 380 fixed events, namely all football matches during the 2017/18 season of the English Premier League. The focus is on whether revisions to these forecasts before the matches began improved the likelihood of predicting correct scorelines and results. Against what theory might expect, we show how these revisions tended towards significantly worse forecasting performance, suggesting that individuals should have stuck with their initial judgements, or their `gut instincts'. This result is robust to both differences in the average forecasting ability of individuals and the predictability of matches. We find evidence this is because revisions to the forecast number of goals scored in football matches are generally excessive, especially when these forecasts were increased rather than decreased.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl Singleton & J. James Reade & Alasdair Brown, 2019. "Going with your gut: the (in)accuracy of forecast revisions in a football score prediction game," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2019-05, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
  • Handle: RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2019-05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bar-Eli, Michael & Krumer, Alex & Morgulev, Elia, 2020. "Ask not what economics can do for sports - Ask what sports can do for economics," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. Sarah Jewell & J. James Reade & Carl Singleton, 2020. "It's Just Not Cricket: The Uncontested Toss and the Gentleman's Game," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-10, Department of Economics, University of Reading.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Judgement revision; Prediction making; Forecasting behaviour; Expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • Z2 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics

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